000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: Earlier altimeter satellite data helped verify combined seas of 10 to 14 ft over the tropical Pacific, mainly from 05N to 20N west of 110W. combined seas of 10-14 ft are found over much of the tropical Pacific, mainly from 05N to 20N, west of 115W. These wave are a combination of the local wind seas due to fresh to strong NE to E winds, along with a component of longer period NW swell. The combined seas in this area will subside into Mon as winds diminish and swell decays. Farther to the northeast, recent ship observations confirm strong to near-gale force northerly winds persist off Baja California Norte along with combined seas to 10 to 13 ft. Reinforcing NW swell will allow combined seas to increase to as high 16 ft overnight, mainly to the northwest of Guadalupe Island, with combined seas in excess of 12 ft over offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, mainly beyond 60 nm off the coast. These combined seas will subside off Baja California through Sun night as winds diminish and the swell decays. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 18details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 05N100W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N100W to beyond 05N130W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 08N and between 118N and 122W, from 03N to 05N between 127W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on large swell off Baja California Norte. A tight gradient between low pressure over the Colorado River Valley and 1039 mb high pressure over the northeast Pacific Ocean is supporting winds to gale force off southern California. Strong to near-gale force NW winds are reaching as far south as Guadalupe Island, off Baja California Norte, along with wave heights reaching 10 to 13 ft. In addition to the large swell mentioned in the Special Features section, combined seas in excess of 8 ft are noted in the open waters off Mexico mainly north of 15N, excluding the Gulf of California. Light to gentle breezes persist farther south, with 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NW winds will persist off Baja California Norte overnight, between low pressure over central Mexico and strong high pressure over the northeast Pacific. Large NW swell will also impact waters north of Punta Eugenia through late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish through Mon, as the high pressure dissipates ahead of the next low pressure system moving toward California. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft everywhere in Mexican waters by late Tue. Looking ahead, large swell will return to Baja California Norte offshore waters by late Thu associated with the remnants of the low pressure north of the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent ship observation indicated fresh to strong easterly gap winds were active in the Gulf of Papagayo. A concurrent altimeter satellite image indicated seas were 3 to 5 ft there. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama, where combined seas are likely 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap easterly winds will pulse nightly across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua tonight through late next week. Seas will build to 7 to 8 ft by the middle of next week in this area. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to locally near gale-force easterly winds persist across most of the tropical eastern Pacific, mainly north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft cover most of the area to the equator west of 110W, driven mainly by NW swell. Mostly light to gentle breezes and moderate seas are noted east of 110W. Trade wind convergence is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms near the ITCZ between 115W and 130W. For the forecast, the area of fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will diminish late this weekend as the high pressure weakens ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. The cold front is forecast to move eastward across the waters north of 25N Tue and Wed. $$ Christensen