000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242040 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Mar 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: Data from several altimeter satellite passes hint of combined seas of 10 to 14 ft over much of the tropical Pacific from 08N to 20N between 120W and 140W. This is in an area of fresh to strong trade winds. Seas generated from the large area of trades are mixing with longer-period NW swell. The winds will diminish slightly, allowing the wave heights to subside below 12 ft through late Sun. Large NW swell to 14 ft will also impact the waters off Baja California Norte late Sat into Sun, but this will also subside through late Sun. Looking ahead, yet another NW to N swell event with seas of 12 ft or greater may propagate south of 30N by the middle of next week behind a weakening cold front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 03N120W to 03N140W. No significant convection is evident at this time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure near 37N130W to Baja California Sur. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicates a broad swath of fresh to strong winds on the periphery of the high pressure. Specifically, this includes northerly winds off Baja California, where wave heights are 8 to 11 ft with a component of long period NW swell. Fresh to locally strong N winds are also evident over the southern portion of the Gulf of California, and off Cabo Corrientes. Wave heights may be reaching as high as 7 to 10 ft between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos. Elsewhere farther south, light breezes and moderate wave heights are noted. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America appears to be less dense than it has been in past days, although moderate restrictions to visibility are still possible in localized areas. For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through early next week. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. NW swell of 8 to 11 ft offshore Baja California will linger into Sat. This will be reinforced by another group of NW swell expected to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon with seas of 10 to 14 ft, with the highest wave beyond 90 nm. This swell will decay late Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW to W winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed ahead of an approaching cold front. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A ridge north of the area continues to support fresh to briefly strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds extend from the Gulf of Panama southward to near 05N, including near the Azuero Peninsula, along with 3 to 5 ft seas per an altimeter satellite pass earlier this afternoon. Mainly light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in mainly SW swell prevail elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is leading may be a little less than in the past several days. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua mainly at night through from Sat night through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event over the west-central waters. Strong high pressure persists across the forecast waters north of 20N. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades, mainly from around 10N to 25N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 10 to 14 ft across this area, in mixed NE wind waves and long- period NW to N swell. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell across the remainder of the area. For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the forecast region, the aerial extent and strength of trade winds will increase across the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong winds covering roughly the waters from 07N to 25N west of 115W by this evening. The area of fresh to strong winds will diminish Sun as the high pressure weakens ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. The cold front is forecast to move across the waters north of 25N Tue and Wed. $$ Christensen