235 AXPZ20 KNHC 231543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Mar 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: Long period NW swell continues to support 12-13 ft seas north of 28N and east of 128W. This swell is subsiding, but another area of 12 ft seas is building due to the NW swell and expanding NE-E trades. Seas of 12-13 ft will build and cover the waters from 07N to 21N west of 120W through the end of the week and into the weekend, subsiding by Sun evening. Looking ahead, the next swell event with seas in excess of 12 ft will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon. At this time, seas of 12-15 ft are forecast to cover the waters north of 25N between 116W and 124W. Seas will subside to less than 12 ft in this area Sun evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N83W to 05N97W. The ITCZ extends from 05N97W to 02N117W to 05N127W to 02N137W. A southern ITCZ extends from 03.4S105W to beyond 03.4S116W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 94W and 114W, from 09N to 12.5N between 101W and 113W, and from 03N to 10N between 117W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing fresh to strong NW-N winds within 60 nm of shore from between Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, and moderate to fresh NW-N winds elsewhere. Seas are 7-11 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, except to 12 ft well offshore Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW winds are developing in the central Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh NW winds elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California. Seas are 3-6 ft across the remainder of the offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds are near Cabo Corrientes, with moderate N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America may reduce visibility across portions of the offshore waters of SW Mexico. For the forecast, strong high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region through the upcoming weekend. This will bring an increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California today. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N winds through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The swell event currently affecting the waters offshore Baja California with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range will subside today. The next swell event will reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sat afternoon with seas of 12 to 15 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua due to a tight pressure gradient, with seas of 5-8 ft. Fresh N winds extend from the Gulf of Panama south to 02N, including near the Azuero Peninsula, along with 4-7 ft seas. Mainly gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas in mainly S-SW swell prevail elsewhere. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo northward. For the forecast, scattered tstms will be possible offshore Ecuador, Colombia and Panama today. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through the next several days. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event over the NE waters, and over the west- central waters. Strong high pressure is building across the forecast waters, supporting expanding fresh to strong trades, currently from 08N to 24N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 8-12 ft across this area, mixed with long-period NW-N swell. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere north of 08N and west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell across the remainder of the area. For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build across the forecast region, the aerial extent and strength of trade winds will increase across the forecast waters. Expect fresh to strong winds covering roughly the waters from 06N to 24N W of 120W by this afternoon, and from 07N to 25N W of 120W by Fri afternoon. At the same time, fresh to strong winds are also expected across the offshore waters of Baja California, the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. The area of fresh to strong winds will diminish by Sun afternoon as the high pressure weakens some. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front may approach 30N late Mon night. $$ Lewitsky