000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell following a cold front continues to propagate across waters N of 23N, with seas of up to 15 ft along 30N. The seas will gradually subside tonight. Even as the NW swell decays Thu into Fri, it will mix with building shorter-period waves associated with northeast trade winds, with combined significant wave heights reaching to around 12 ft mainly from 07N to 20N and west of 119W. These seas of around 12 ft are likely to continue through early Sun before decaying for the end of the weekend. Looking ahead, strong NW winds from southern California to Baja California will build combined seas to 12 to 14 ft N of 25N offshore Baja California to 124W Sat afternoon through Sun before decaying. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 06N90W. The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 04N110W to beyond 00N129W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 01N between 80W and 83W, from 01N to 06N between 108W and 120W, and from 07N to 13N between 92W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 03N to 09N between 119W and 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to offshore waters of Baja California near Punta Eugenia. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are occurring ahead of it in the northern Gulf of California, but are diminishing. Seas of 3 to 5 ft there. Mainly moderate to fresh NW winds are behind the front over the offshore waters. Seas are 8 to 12 ft offshore Baja California Norte in arriving NW swell. Fresh N gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate, except 3 to 6 ft offshore Baja California Sur. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America is restricting visibility across portions of the waters offshore SW Mexico. For the forecast, fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish Thu. The cold front will move SE through the Gulf of California through tonight while gradually dissipating. Fresh to locally strong SW to W gap winds ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California will diminish as it passes. Fresh to locally strong NW winds will occur offshore Baja California behind the front Thu through Sat night, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. Large NW swell of 8 to 12 ft issue arriving behind the front offshore Baja California will continue through the end of the week, with a reinforcing set this weekend, possibly building seas up to 12 to 14 ft from offshore Punta Eugenia northward. That swell will subside to less than 8 ft early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale-force NE-E gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua per a recent ship observation, due to high pressure north of the area, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh N-NE gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central America and northern South America, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft mainly due to a long-period south to southwest swell. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo northward. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through the next several days. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama through Fri night, with locally strong winds possible tonight through Thu evening. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on significant swell over the northern waters tonight into early Thu, then over the west-central waters Thu night into the upcoming weekend. A dissipating cold front extends from the central Gulf of California to across the Baja California Peninsula just S of Punta Eugenia to 18N126W. Winds behind the front have diminished to moderate to fresh. High pressure is building behind the front, and trades have increased to fresh to strong from about 10N to 25N W of 130W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed NE-E wind waves and NW-N swell. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted over the remainder of area waters. For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build S in the wake of the dissipating cold front, fresh to strong trade winds will expand in coverage to around 03N to 25N W of 110W into Sat night, then diminishing somewhat for the end of the weekend. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front may approach 30N late Mon night. $$ Lewitsky