852 AXPZ20 KNHC 221406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell following a cold front continues to propagate across waters N of 23N, with seas of up to 16 ft along 30N. The seas have generally peaked earlier this morning, and will gradually subside into tonight. Even as the NW swell decays Thu into Fri, it will mix with building shorter-period waves associated with northeast trade winds, with combined significant wave heights reaching to around 12 ft mainly from 07N to 20N and west of 120W. These seas of around 12 ft are likely to continue through early Sun before decaying for the end of the weekend. Looking ahead, strong NW winds from southern California to Baja California will build combined seas to 12 to 14 ft N of 25N offshore Baja California to 124W Sat night through Sun before decaying. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 03N110W to 04N126W to beyond 00N129W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 99W and 115W, from 01N to 06N between 103W and 119W, and from 02N to 08N between 119W and 129W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 02N between 93W and 98W, and from 11N to 12.5N between 90W and 99W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to offshore waters of Baja California near Punta Eugenia. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are occurring ahead of it in the northern Gulf of California along with seas of 3 to 6 ft, with mainly fresh NW winds behind it over offshore waters. Seas are 8 to 12 ft offshore Baja California Norte in arriving NW swell. Fresh to locally strong gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate NW-N winds and 2 to 5 ft seas dominate, except 3 to 7 ft offshore Baja California Sur. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico and Central America is restricting visibility across portions of the waters offshore SW Mexico. For the forecast, N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish this afternoon. The cold front will move SE through the Gulf of California through tonight while gradually dissipating. Fresh to locally strong SW to W gap winds ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California will diminish as it passes. Fresh to locally strong NW winds will occur offshore Baja California behind the front Thu through the forecast period, with pulses of fresh to locally strong winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes. Large NW swell of 8 to 12 ft issue arriving behind the front offshore Baja California will continue through the end of the week, with a reinforcing set this weekend, possibly building seas up to 12 to 14 ft from offshore Punta Eugenia northward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale-force NE-E gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo and adjacent waters offshore Nicaragua due to high pressure north of the area, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Fresh N-NE gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central America and northern South America, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft mainly due to a long-period south to southwest swell. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America is leading to some visibility restrictions offshore waters from the Gulf of Papagayo northward. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama into Fri, with locally strong winds possible tonight through Thu evening. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Smoke from agricultural fires in northern Central America may at times restrict visibility over adjacent waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on significant swell over the northern waters today, then over the west-central waters Thu night into the upcoming weekend. A cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to across Baja California through 29N114W to 20N126W, then continues as dissipating to 17N140W. Strong W-NW winds continue behind it over waters N of 29N and E of 129W. As the high pressure building in behind the front weakens slightly and cold-air advection ends, winds immediately behind the front will continue to diminish today into tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds mainly from near 02N to 20N west of 130W are supporting combined seas of 5 to 7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted over the remainder of area waters. For the forecast, as high pressure continues to build S in the wake of the cold front, trade winds will increase from around 03N to 25N W of 110W, supporting fresh to strong speeds into Sat night, then diminishing somewhat for the end of the weekend. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. $$ Lewitsky