000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Mar 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient in southeastern Mexico resulting from high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is causing gap wind of gale force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will diminish below gale late tonight as the high pressure north of the area shifts eastward and the present tight gradient that is over southeastern Mexico slackens. Fresh to strong gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue. Wave heights currently peaking to 12 ft are forecast to subside to 10 ft overnight. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft across the area early Tue. Pacific Gale Warning for far northern waters behind a cold front: A cold front over the northwest part of the area is analyzed from near 30N130W to west of the area at 24N140W. Strong high pressure building in behind the front with cold-air advection will lead to gale-force W to NW winds by late tonight and into Tue north of about 29N and between 130W-135W, with strong to near- gale force winds north of 25N through Tue night. Pacific Significant Swell Event: The other hazard from the aforementioned cold front will be large NW swell following the front, with seas reaching to about 19 ft late Tue into early on Wed north of 27N. Wave heights in excess of 12 ft will reach as far south as 23N Wed before subsiding. Looking ahead, even as the NW swell decays Thu into Fri, it will mix with increasing shorter-period waves associated with northeast trade winds along with combined significant wave heights reaching 12 ft mainly from 05N to 25N and west of 110W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N111W to 03N124W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 123W-126W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on an ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere off Mexico, weak high pressure dominates most of the waters. Light to gentle winds are present over most of these waters. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds have developed E of a stationary front over the northern Gulf of California. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, a now-stationary front from Baja California Norte to 26N118W will dissipate Tue. A cold front will move across the same area Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong southwest to west gap winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California and continue until the cold front passes. Fresh to locally strong west to northwest winds can be expected offshore Baja California Tue into Thu night, along with seas of 8-12 ft due to long-period NW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo due to high pressure building north of the area. Locally moderate winds have also developed in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central America and South America along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a long-period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua through Tue night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama as well during this period. Large swell associated with a gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will be well off the coast of Guatemala through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a gale warning well west of Baja California Norte Tue as well as significant seas over the northern waters into mid-week. A now stationary front extends from near 26N118W to 22N123W. A cold front over the northwest part of the area is analyzed along a position from near 30N130W to 25N140W. Behind this front, fresh to locally strong NW winds have developed, and seas have increased to 8 ft. Weak high pressure ridging is the main feature over the area to the south of these fronts. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds mainly from 02N to 15N west of 118W are supporting combined seas of 4-6 ft in that area. Generally slight seas are noted elsewhere. The stationary front will dissipate Tue. The cold front will move east across the northern and central waters through Wed as its southern part weakens and dissipates. As the high pressure builds in behind this front, trade winds will increase W of 125W between the equator and 20N to fresh to locally strong for the latter half of the week. Farther east, northeast swell generated from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale will reach into Pacific waters as far west at 104W tonight, then subside. Mainly gentle winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere east of 110W into Thu. $$ KONARIK