000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Cool, dense air behind the front along with a tight pressure gradient associated with high pressure building in the wake of the front will together support northerly gap winds to gale force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Winds will diminish below gale early Mon as the high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Fresh to strong gap winds will persist over the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Tue. Wave heights may reach as high as 15 ft, with rough seas reaching as far as 420 nm downstream through Mon. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft across the area early Tue. Pacific Gale Warning near 30N130W: A cold front currently developing northwest of the area will move eastward across the waters north of 25N into mid week. The cold air and strong high pressure building behind this front will support winds to gale force mainly north of the area by Tue. Strong to near-gale force winds are expected north of 25N Mon into Wed. Winds to gale force are likely to reach as far south as 29N Tue. These winds will diminish below gale force late Tue, but strong to near- gale force winds will persist north of 28N east of 125W into Wed. Pacific Significant Swell Event: The other hazard from the aforementioned cold front will be large NW swell following the front, with seas reaching as high as 16 to 18 ft Tue and Wed north of 27N. Wave heights in excess of 12 ft will reach as far south as 23N Wed through Wed night before subsiding. Looking ahead, even as the NW swell decays Thu and Thu night, it will mix with increasing shorter- period waves associated with NE trade winds, with combined significant wave heights reaching 12 ft mainly from 05N to 25N, west of 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A segment of the ITCZ extends from 04N112W to 00N127W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 115W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section for details on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere off Mexico, weak high pressure dominates most of the waters. Light to gentle winds are present most areas, with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except less than 2 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a weak cold front will approach the waters offshore Baja California Norte Mon, then dissipate as it moves E across the northern Gulf of California Mon night. Another stronger cold front will cross the same area Tue night into Wed. Fresh to locally strong SW to W gap winds will develop in the northern Gulf behind the first front and continue until the second front passes. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds can be expected offshore Baja California Mon night through Thu, along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo due to high pressure building N of the area. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central America and South America along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua tonight and Mon night, before a more sustained gap wind sets up Tue night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds can be expected over the Gulf of Panama as well by Tue. Large swell associated with a gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec can be expected well off the coast of Guatemala into Tue. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas can be expected elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for details on a gale warning well west of Baja California Norte Tue. A cold front extends from 30N121W to 29N115W. Another cold front is noted just NW of the forecast waters at 30N140W. Weak ridging is dominating S of these fronts. Moderate to fresh trade winds mainly from 05N to 15N west of 125W are supporting 5 to 7 ft combined seas in that area. Generally slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the first front will weaken over Baja California tonight, then dissipate Mon night. The next from will move east across the northern waters through mid week. Farther east, NE swell generated from the Tehuantepec gale will reach into Pacific waters as far west at 105W into Tue, before subsiding. Gentle breezes and slight seas will persist elsewhere east of 110W into mid week. $$ KONARIK