000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190141
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Mar 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 03N110W to 00N124W. No significant
convection is present at this time.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Light to gentle winds dominate most of the waters with seas of 2
to 4 ft, except less than 2 ft in the Gulf of California. Fresh
to strong gap winds are developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

For the forecast, as high pressure builds through the Gulf of 
Mexico, N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale
force overnight, then into Mon, before gradually weakening into 
the middle of next week as the high pressure moves E, away from 
the area. A cold front will approach the Mon night, then 
dissipate as it crosses the northern Gulf Tue into Tue night. 
Another stronger front will follow closely behind and cross the 
area Wed. Fresh to strong SW gap winds will develop in the 
northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Mon night and 
continue into Wed. Fresh NW winds will also affect the Baja 
California offshore waters Tue through Thu, along with seas of 8 
to 12 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, mostly benign marine conditions 
will prevail through early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 
Light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters 
of Central America and South America along with seas of 3-4 ft 
in SW swell.

For the forecast, except for the gulfs of Papagayo and Panama, 
light to gentle winds will prevail over the offshore waters 
through Thu night. Moderate to fresh NE gap winds will develop in
the region of Papagayo Sun and increase to fresh to strong 
speeds Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will then continue 
through Thu night likely reaching near gale-force Wed evening. 
Moderate to fresh N to NE gap winds will develop in the Gulf of 
Panama Sun night, extending southward to near 03N and continuing 
through Thu night. Otherwise, northerly swell associated with gap
winds in Tehuantepec region will affect the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore waters Sun afternoon into Mon night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak surface ridge along 21N is retreating westward away from
the region. A 1016 mb low pressure is near 26N119W. A weakening
cold front is noted from 30N135W to 27N140W. A surface trough
from around 12N100W to 06N106W is inducing scattered moderate
convection. Winds behind the weak cold front are moderate to
fresh, with moderate to fresh NE to E trades W of 120N between
the equator and 18N. Otherwise, mainly light to gentle winds
prevail. Seas in the zones of moderate to fresh winds are 5 to 7
ft, with seas elsewhere ranging from 4 to 6 ft. 

The cold front will move east and dissipate as it reaches the
offshore waters of Baja California Norte Sun night. Another cold
front will enter the NW forecast waters Mon, bringing strong to
near gale force NW to N winds and seas of up to 18 ft in its
wake, mainly N of 25N. This front will reach the Baja California
Norte offshore waters Tue night. Winds and seas associated with
this second front will start to diminish Wed evening. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the western 
tropical forecast waters, increasing to fresh to strong Wed 
evening and continuing through the end of the week.

$$
KONARIK