000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 18 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 03N110W to 01N117W to 00N122W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 05S to 05N between 109W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data show light to gentle NW winds along the Baja California Peninsula offshore waters where seas are between 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 4 ft are also elsewhere, except for seas to 2 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then increase to gale-force early Sun morning through late Mon morning. Strong gap winds will then persist into Tue. A cold front will approach Baja California Norte Tue, then move across the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed. This will result in the development of SW fresh to strong gap winds in the northern Gulf of California Mon night through Wed morning. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds associated with the front will also affect the Baja California offshore waters Tue into Thu night along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, mostly benign marine conditions will prevail into mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central America and South America along with seas of 3-4 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, except for the Gulf of Papagayo and Panama, light to gentle winds will prevail over the offshore waters through Thu night with seas to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh NE gap winds will develop in the region of Papagayo tonight and increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will then continue through Thu night likely reaching near gale-force Wed evening. Seas will build to 8 ft in Papagayo Tue night into Wed. Moderate to fresh N to NE gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama Sun night, extending southward to near 03N and continuing through Thu night. Otherwise, northerly swell associated with an upcoming gap wind event in Tehuantepec will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sun afternoon through Mon. Seas within this period will range between 5 to 9 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface high pressure of 1020 mb centered near 22N142W and its associated ridge cover the waters N of 11N and W of 111W. Weakening low pressure of 1016 mb prevail W of the Baja California offshore waters near 26N119W just ahead of a cold front that entered the NW forecast waters and extends from 30N136W to 28N140W. Southwest of Oaxaca, Mexico offshore waters, a surface trough extends from 12N100W to 06N106W along with scattered showers. Recent scatterometer data show SW to W moderate to fresh winds ahead and behind the cold front N of 26N W of 132W. Seas in the vicinity of the front range between 5 to 8 ft. Otherwise, an area of moderate to fresh trades remain between the ridge and the ITCZ W of 125W along with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward while weakening and reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte Mon morning. A second cold front will enter the NW forecast waters Mon morning followed by fresh to near gale-force N to NW winds and building seas to 18 ft. The front will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters Tue evening. Winds and seas associated with this second front will start to diminish Wed evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue across the western tropical forecast waters, increasing to fresh to strong Wed evening and continuing through the end of the week. $$ Ramos