000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 08N86W to 07N93W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N111W to 01N121W to 00N130W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02S to 05N between 107W and
123W and offshore Panama.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is allowing for mainly
gentle to locally moderate winds to prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft 
in the offshore waters, with seas in the Gulf of California of 
less than 2 ft. 

For the forecast, strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec tonight, then increase to gale-force Sun morning 
through late Mon morning. Strong gap winds will then persist into
Tue. A cold front will approach Baja California Norte Tue, then 
move across the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed. 
This will result in the development of SW fresh to strong gap 
winds in the northern Gulf of California Mon night through Wed 
morning. Moderate to fresh SW winds associated with the front 
will also affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters Tue 
into Wed along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, 
mostly benign marine conditions will prevail into mid-week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 
Light to gentle variable winds prevail over the offshore waters 
of Central America and South America along with seas of 3-5 ft 
in SW swell.

For the forecast, except for the Gulf of Papagayo and Panama, 
light to gentle winds will prevail over the offshore waters 
through the middle of the week with seas to 4 ft. Moderate to 
fresh NE gap winds will develop in the region of Papagayo tonight
and increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun night. Fresh to 
strong winds will then continue through Wed night likely reaching
near gale-force Wed evening. Seas will build to 8 ft in Papagayo
Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, moderate to fresh N to NE gap 
winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama Sun night, extending 
southward to near 03N and continuing through mid-week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface high pressure of 1019 mb centered near 21N140W and its
associated ridge cover the waters N of 15N and W of 124W while a
1014 mb low pressure centered near 27N120W covers the remaider
subtropical waters W of Baja California. Southwest of the Oaxaca,
Mexico offshore waters, a surface trough extends from 14N99W to
06N106W along with scattered showers. Winds are mainly light to
gentle with seas to 6 ft in the subtropical waters. Otherwise, an
area of moderate to fresh trades remain between the ridge and the
ITCZ W of 125W along with seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will build along 23N to 24N this
weekend, maintaining the moderate to fresh tradewinds over the
western tradewind zone. A cold front will enter the NW waters 
Mon, likely leading to increasing winds and seas N of 25N and W 
of 130W early next week. 

$$
Ramos