000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181529
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 08N86W to 07N93W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N111W to 01N121W to 00N130W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02S to 05N between 107W and
123W and offshore Panama.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is allowing for mainly
gentle to locally moderate winds to prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft 
in the offshore waters, with seas in the Gulf of California of 
less than 2 ft. 

For the forecast, strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec tonight, then increase to gale Sun morning through 
late Mon morning. Strong gap winds will then persist into Tue. A
cold front will approach Baja California Norte Tue, then move 
across the northern Gulf of California Tue night into Wed. This 
will result in the development of SW fresh to strong gap winds in
the northern Gulf of California Mon night through Wed morning.
Moderate to fresh SW winds associated with the front will also
affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters Tue into Wed
along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, mostly 
benign marine conditions will prevail into mid-week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 
Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Central America and South America. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range 
in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the
offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in
the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate tonight, then 
increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun night and continuing
through late next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

SW winds ahead of a weak cold front have increased to fresh 
toward 30N140W. A 1014 mb low pressure centered near 27N122W is 
inducing locally moderate cyclonic winds. The pressure gradient 
between 1020 mb high pressure near 22N139W and the lower pressure
of the ITCZ is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades 
between the equator and 18N and W of 110W. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds dominate. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure will build along 23N to 24N this
weekend, maintaining the moderate to fresh tradewinds over the 
tradewind zone. A cold front will enter the NW waters Mon,
likely leading to increasing winds and seas N of 25N and W of 
130W early next week. 

$$
Ramos