000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180126
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 18 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 07N95W and from 09N100W
to 03N104W. The ITCZ extends from 03N107W to 02N120W to 00N132W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 
88W and 95W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is allowing for mainly
gentle winds to prevail, with locally moderate winds offshore
Baja California Sur and in the southern Gulf of California. Seas
are 4 ft or less in the offshore waters, with seas in the Gulf of
California of less than 2 ft. 

For the forecast, strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec Sat night, then likely increase to gale Sun night
through Mon morning. Strong gap winds will then persist through
Tue. A cold front will approach Baja California Norte Tue 
night, then likely move across the northern Gulf of California 
Wed. This will result in the development of SW fresh to strong 
gap winds in the northern Gulf of California Tue morning ahead of
the front. Elsewhere, mostly benign marine conditions will 
prevail through Tue night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 
Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Central America and South America. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range 
in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the
offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in
the Papagayo region will pulse to moderate Sat night, then 
increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun night and continuing 
into late next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1020 mb is analyzed near 22N138W with low
pressure of 1012 mb centered near 27N122W dominating waters N of
20N and E of 130W. N of 18N, winds are mainly gentle with seas of
4 to 6 ft. To the S, similar seas are observed but moderate to
fresh trades prevail N of the ITCZ, due to the pressure gradient
between the ITCZ and the aforementioned high pressure. 

For the forecast, high pressure will build along 23N to 24N this
weekend, maintaining the moderate to fresh tradewinds over the 
tradewind zone. A cold front will enter the NW waters Mon,
possibly inducing increasing winds and seas N of 25N and W of
130W early next week. 

$$
KONARIK