000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171607
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N81W. The ITCZ extends
from 01N105W to 02N120W to 01S140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 87W and 94W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03.5S to 05N 
between 103W and 120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient across the region is allowing for the
continuation of gentle to locally moderate NW winds along the
Baja California offshore waters where decaying NW swell supports
seas of 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
across the S and SW waters off Mexico with seas to 4 ft. Winds of
similar magnitude are along the Gulf of California with seas to 2
ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec Sat night and continue through the middle of next
week, briefly increasing to near gale-force Sun night. A cold
front will approach Baja California Norte on Tue and move across
the northern Gulf of California Tue night. This will result in 
the development of SW fresh to strong gap winds in the northern 
Gulf of California Tue morning ahead of the front. Elsewhere, 
mostly benign marine conditions will prevail into Tue night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 
Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Central America and South America. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range 
in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the
offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in
the Papagayo region may pulse at times to moderate, then 
increase again to fresh to strong speeds starting Sun night and
continuing through Tue night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1020 mb is analyzed near 21N136W. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are noted N of 24N and W
of 125W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the area of 
high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
producing mainly moderate trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 15N 
and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail
elsewhere across the discussion waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds over the NW waters will
decrease today. High pressure will build along 23N to 24N this 
weekend, maintaining the moderate to fresh tradewinds over the 
tradewind zone. A cold front is likely to enter the NW waters 
Mon, possibly inducing increasing winds and seas N of 25N and W 
of 130W.

$$
Ramos