000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160811
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 16 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0745 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 01N101W. The ITCZ 
extends from 01N101W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 00N to 05N between 113W and 123W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California to
waters offshore Baja California Norte. Winds N of the front are
mainly moderate and NW. Winds ahead of it offshore Baja
California are gentle to moderate, with light to gentle winds in
the Gulf of California, except for an area of fresh to locally
strong SW gap winds ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of
California. Strong N gap winds are also ongoing over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range are noted over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as west of Baja California Norte.
Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. 
Seas of 2-4 ft are noted over the northern Gulf of California and
1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and dissipate over
the central Gulf of California this afternoon. Fresh to strong 
SW gap winds ahead of the front the the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish today as the front moves through. In the
wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected 
offshore Baja California into tonight before diminishing 
slightly. Strong gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish today.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 
Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Central America and South America. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range 
in long-period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the
offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in the
Papagayo region may pulse at times to moderate into Fri, then
increase again starting Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed near 23N124W. A cold front
extends from 27N120W to 25N125W, where it transitions to a 
stationary front that continues to 26N140W. Moderate to fresh
mainly E winds are occurring N of the boundary, with moderate to
fresh SW winds to the S. Seas in these areas of winds are 6 to 8
ft. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing gentle to
moderate trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and W of 115W. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion 
waters. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate 
by early Thu evening. The stationary front will lift N as a warm
front due to low pressure W of the area. This low and warm front
will impact the far NW waters with fresh to strong winds and seas
of 8 to 9 ft through tonight. These conditions are forecast to 
diminish Thu night as the low pressure and warm front weaken. 
High pressure will build along 23N to 24N this weekend.

$$
KONARIK