000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152022 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2020 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 01N101W. The ITCZ extends from 01N101W to 01S140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 00N to 05N between 115W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 23N123W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California. Strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Gap winds have freshened in the northern Gulf of California, with light to gentle winds over the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range are noted over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well as west of Baja California Norte. Seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted over the northern Gulf of California and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a cold front has reached the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The front will dissipate by early Thu evening over the central Gulf of California. Fresh to strong southwest winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight ahead of the front, then diminish Thu. In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected offshore Baja California tonight through early Thu afternoon before diminishing slightly. Strong gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight then diminish on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of Central America and South America. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range N of the equator, and 5-6 ft S of the equator in long-period S to SW swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will become moderate on Thu, then diminish Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed near 23N123W. A cold front is over the north-central waters from near 30N120W to 28N128W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure associated with the cold front is supporting moderate NE to E winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, north of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing gentle to moderate trade winds N of the ITCZ to near 18N and W of 115W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. Aside from the area of 6-7 ft seas mentioned above, seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will begin to weaken as it reaches from northern Baja California to the northeast part of the area this evening and dissipate by early Thu evening. Fresh to strong SW and E winds with seas of 8-9 ft are expected north of 26N and west of 130W starting tonight as a warm front associated with a low pressure system west of the area that will track to the northeast moves across the NW waters. These conditions are forecast to diminish Thu night as the low pressure system continues to the northeast farther from the discussion area, while at the same time the warm front weakens. High pressure will build along 23N to 24N this upcoming weekend. $$ AL