000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150403
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from low pressure over northwest
Colombia southwestward to 07N78W to 04N90W to 01N106W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 01N120W to 02N130W and to 01N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen within 120 nm north of the trough 
between 83W-89W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
118W-126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 25N123W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure 
over northern Mexico is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW 
to N winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, including in the Gulf of 
California. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range west of the Baja 
California peninsula and 4-5 ft over the remainder of the open 
waters off Mexico. Seas of 1-3 ft are noted over the Gulf of 
California. 

For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will 
support gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California
the next few days. A cold front will reach the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters early Wed. The front will dissipate early 
Thu over the central Gulf of California. Fresh to strong 
southwest winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California 
Wed and Wed night ahead of the front. In the wake of the front, 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected offshore Baja 
California Wed night through early Thu afternoon, at which time
they diminish to gentle to moderate speeds. Strong gap winds
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed and Wed night,
diminishing in Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Central America and South America. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range N
of the equator, and 4-6 ft S of the equator, in long- period S 
to SW swell.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the 
offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region will become moderate on Thu, then 
diminish Thu night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1021 mb is analyzed near 25N123W. A cold front 
is over the NW waters from near 30N129W to 26N140W, where it
becomes a stationary front westward from there. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
associated with the cold front is supporting fresh SW winds 
E of the front to near 121W along with seas of 8-10 ft in long-
period W to NW swell. The pressure gradient between the area of 
high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
maintaining generally gentle to moderate trade winds N of the 
ITCZ to near 18N and W of about 118W. Light to gentle winds are 
noted elsewhere across the discussion waters. Aside from the area
of 8-10 ft seas mentioned above, seas of 4-7 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the cold front over the NW waters is forecast 
to begin to weaken as it reaches from near 30N124W to 26N135W by
early on Wed and from far northwest Mexico to the northern Gulf 
of California and to near 27N122W by early on Thu and dissipate 
soon afterwards. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-9 ft are 
expected north of 26N and west of 130W starting Wed night as 
a warm front associated with a low pressure system west of the 
area that will track to the northeast. High pressure will build 
along 22/23N this upcoming weekend.

$$
Aguirre