000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141430
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1420 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 05N108W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N108W to 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 91W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1017 mb is centered near 23N121W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure 
over northern Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California as well 
over the southern and central Gulf of California. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of the
Baja California peninsula and 4-5 ft over the remainder of the
open waters off Mexico. Seas of 1-3 ft are noted over the Gulf
of California.  

For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will 
support gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California
the next few days. A cold front will reach the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters early Wed. The front will dissipate early 
Thu over the central Gulf of California. Fresh to strong 
southwest winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California 
Wed and Wed night ahead of the front. In the wake of the front, 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected offshore Baja 
California Wed night through Fri before diminishing late Fri 
through Sat night. Gap winds will briefly strengthen in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Wed through Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds prevail over the offshore waters of 
Central America and South America. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range 
across the area due to a long- period S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail over the 
offshore waters through much of the forecast period. Winds in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region will become moderate on Thu, then 
diminish Thu night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1017 mb is analyzed near 23N121W. The pressure
gradient between this are of high pressure and lower pressure
north of the NW waters is supporting fresh to strong winds over
the NW waters, with seas of 8-10 ft. The pressure gradient
between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of
the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are
noted elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas of 4-6 ft
prevail.  

For the forecast, a cold front over the NW waters is forecast to
start to weaken as it reaches from near 30N121W to 26N132W by 
late Wed night, and dissipate soon afterwards. Fresh to strong 
winds and seas of 8-9 ft north of 26N and west of 130W will
develop the middle of the week through Thu evening. High 
pressure will build along 22/23N this upcoming weekend.

$$
AL