315 
AXPZ20 KNHC 141020 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 14 2023

Corrected forecast under the Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of 
Central America, Colombia and Within 750 nm of Ecuador section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 11N86W to low of 1011 mb near
09N89W to 04N100W and to 03N109W, where latest scatterometer 
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
00N130W and to 02.5S140W. No significant convection is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Relatively weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered west of 
these waters near 31N129W. The gradient between the high and 
lower pressures over northern Mexico is inducing gentle to
moderate NW to N winds over the offshore waters west of Baja 
California. An overnight ASCAT data pass depicts generally 
moderate NW winds over the southern and central Gulf of 
California. The same data indicates light and variable winds 
over the northern Gulf. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere east of 
about 112W. Seas are 6-8 ft to the west of Baja California and 
3-5 ft elsewhere due to a long-period S to SW swell, except 1-2 
ft in the northern Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft between Cabo 
San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will 
allow for gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja 
California through the next few days. A cold front will reach
the Baja California Norte offshore waters early Wed, and move 
southeastward over the northern Gulf of California late Wed, then
weaken and dissipate early Thu over the central Gulf of 
California. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected in the 
northern Gulf of California Wed and Wed night ahead of the front.
In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are 
expected offshore Baja California Wed night through Fri. Winds 
then return to gentle to moderate speeds offshore Baja California
late Fri through Sat night. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap 
wind event is forecast to bring fresh to strong N winds early Wed
through Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected

Light to gentle and variable winds are over the offshore waters 
of Central America and South America. Seas are 4-5 ft across the 
area due to a long-period S to SW swell. Scattered showers and  
isolated thunderstorms are observed over the offshore waters of 
Costa Rica, southern Nicaragua and northern Panama. Conditions 
aloft are favorable for this activity to remain active at least
into tonight.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds are expected 
over just about the entire offshore waters region through the 
forecast period. Light and variable winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region will become moderate on Thu, then diminish Thu 
night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed near 31N129W. The 
associated gradient is allowing for generally gentle winds to 
exist from 24N to 30N between 119W-127W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this
area. Low pressure of 999 mb is centered north of the area near 
35N130W. A warm front extends east-southeastward from the low to 
near 30N124W, while a cold front extends from the low southwestward
to 30N135W and to 28N140W.
 
A tight gradient between the low pressure and its associated
fronts with the aforementioned high pressure is leading to 
strong SW winds and seas of 8-10 ft north of about 27N and 
west of 130W as noted in a recent altimeter data pass over that 
part of the discussion area. Moderate E winds and seas of 5-7 ft
prevail from 10N-23N west of 120W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front
in the northwest portion of the area should move from west to 
east across the waters north of 26N through this evening. The 
cold front is forecast to reach from near 30N127W to 26N133W 
and dissipating to 25N140W by late tonight, then start to weaken
as it reaches from near 30N121W to 26N132W by late Wed night,
and dissipate soon afterwards. A warm front in advance of another
low will move into the NW forecast waters Wed evening. The 
gradient associated with this system is forecast to support 
fresh to strong winds and seas possibly of 8-9 ft north of 26N 
and west of 130W through Thu evening. Looking ahead, high 
pressure will build along 22/23N this upcoming weekend.

$$
Aguirre