000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132002 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Mar 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall over Ecuador: The large-scale environment remains favorable for continued periods of heavy rainfall over portions of Ecuador through tonight. Some flash flooding is possible. After tonight, the intensity of the rainfall will diminish to more normal rates for this time of year. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 11N86W to a 1012 mb low near 09N89W to 04N100W To 03N109W. The ITCZ extends from 03N109W to 00N130W to 02.5S140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01S to 11N between 77W and 90W, and from 02S to 03N between 116W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered west of these waters near 30N123W. The gradient between the high and lower pressures over northern Mexico is inducing moderate to fresh NNW winds in the offshore waters to the west of Baja California, as shown in recent ASCAT satellite data. The recent ASCAT pass also shows moderate NW winds over the southern and central Gulf of California. Winds are likely gentle in the northern Gulf. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere east of 111W. Seas are 6-8 ft to the west of Baja California and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. For the forecast, fresh NNW winds will continue near, and within 150 nm west of the coast of Baja California through this evening. Weak high pressure will shift eastward over the area Tue allowing for gentle winds. Moderate to fresh NW winds in the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California will remain through tonight. Relatively quiet conditions are expected elsewhere through Tue. A cold front will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters early Wed, and move southeastward over the northern Gulf of California late Wed, then weaken and dissipate early Thu over the central Gulf of California. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California Wed and Wed night ahead of the front. In the wake of the front, moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected offshore Baja California Wed night through Thu night. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to bring fresh to strong N winds early Wed through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows light to gentle and variable winds across the offshore waters of Central America and South America. Seas are 4-5 ft across the area. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the waters offshore western Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. Conditions aloft are favorable for this activity to remain active through this evening. For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds are expected over just about the entire offshore waters through the forecast period. Winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will become moderate to fresh NE to E on Wed night and Thu, then diminish Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed near 30N123W. The associated gradient is allowing for generally gentle winds to exist from 24N to 30N between 119W and 127W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. A 1007 mb low pressure system is centered NW of the area near 33N141W. A warm front extends ESE from the low pres to 31N133W. As a result, strong SW winds and seas of 8-10 ft are occurring N of 26.5N and W of 132W. Moderate E winds and seas near 7 ft prevail from 10N-20N west of 120W. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front in the northwest portion of the area should move from west to east across the waters north of 26N through Tue. The cold front will cross 30N140W this evening, then extend from 30N127W to 25N140W early Tue evening, then start to weaken as it reaches from 30N121W to 25N134W early Wed. It should then dissipate by late Wed night. A warm front will move into the NW forecast waters Wed evening. The gradient associated with this system is forecast to support fresh to strong winds along with building seas north of 25N and west of 128W through Thu evening. Looking ahead, high pressure will build in along 23/24N this weekend. $$ Hagen