417 AXPZ20 KNHC 131602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Mar 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1540 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall over Ecuador: The large-scale environment remains favorable for continued periods of heavy rainfall over portions of NW South America through late this week. Although the threat of heavy rain will exist on a daily basis, the risk is higher in Ecuador now through Tue morning, when very heavy rain and significant flash flooding is possible. After Tue, the rain in Ecuador should diminish in intensity, while the biggest threat shifts southward into Peru. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 11N89W to a 1011 mb low near 08N90W southwestward to 04N97W and to 03N109W. The ITCZ extends from 03N109W to 00N125W to 03S140W. A second surface trough extends from 01S81W to 01S109W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 04N between 78W and 83W, from 04N to 12N between 83W and 90W, and from 02S to 01N between 118W and 124W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered west of these waters near 28N125W. The gradient between the high and lower pressures over northern Mexico is inducing fresh NNW winds in the offshore waters to the west of Baja California south of 30N and east of 118W. Farther north and west, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Moderate NW winds are occurring in the southern and central Gulf of California, and mainly at gentle speeds in the northern Gulf. Mostly moderate NW to N winds are present to the S and SW of Cabo San Lucas, extending offshore. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere east of 110W. Seas are 6-8 ft to the west of Baja California and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf of California, and 5-6 ft between Cabo San Lucas and the Revillagigedo Islands. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NNW winds will continue near, and within 150 nm west of the coast of Baja California through this afternoon. Weak high pressure will shift eastward over the area Tue allowing for gentle winds. Moderate to fresh NW winds in the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California will remain through tonight. Relatively quiet conditions are expected elsewhere through Tue. A cold front will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters early Wed, and move southeastward over the northern Gulf of California late Wed, then weaken and dissipate by early Thu over the central Gulf of California. Fresh to strong southwest winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California Wed and Wed night ahead of the front. In the wake of the front, fresh NW to N winds are expected offshore Baja California Wed night through Thu night. The front will bring moderate NW swell to the Baja California Norte waters. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to bring fresh to strong N winds early Wed through Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through late this week. Gentle winds prevail across the offshore waters of Central America and South America with seas of 4-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the waters offshore Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. Conditions aloft are favorable for this activity to remain active today, and continue through late on Tue. For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds are expected over just about the entire offshore waters through the forecast period. Winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will become moderate to fresh NE to E on Wed night and Thu, then diminish Thu night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is analyzed near 28N125W. The associated gradient is allowing for generally light to gentle variable winds to exist from 21N to 30N between 119W and 132W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. A gale force 1007 mb low pressure system is centered NW of the area near 32N145W. A warm front extends ESE from the low pres to 30N135W. As a result, fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas of 7-9 ft are occurring N of 26N and W of 135W. Over the area from 14N-25N and east of 127W, decaying W to NW swell is still producing seas to 8 ft. Moderate NE to E winds and seas of 7-8 ft prevail from 10N-20N west of 120W. For the forecast, W to NW long-period swell that is propagating from 15N-25N between 115W-128W will continue to decay through early this evening, at which time seas are forecast to decrease to below 8 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front in the northwest portion of the area should move from west to east across the waters north of 25N through early Tue. The cold front is forecast to reach from near 30N138W to 29N140W by this evening, then begin to weaken as it reaches from near 30N127W to 26N134W and to 25N140W by early Tue evening and from near 30N119W to 25.5N131W by early Wed. It should then dissipate by late Wed night. A warm front will move into the NW forecast waters Wed evening. The gradient associated with this system is forecast to support fresh to strong winds along with building seas north of 26N and west of 128W through Thu evening. $$ Hagen