000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120918 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Very Heavy to Extreme Rainfall over Ecuador and Western Peru: The large-scale environment remains favorable for continued very heavy to extreme rainfall over portions of NW South America through late next week. Although the threat will exist on a daily basis, the risk is higher in Ecuador during late today through Tue morning, in NW Peru late Mon through Wed morning, and in W central Peru Mon and Tue. This rain may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 03N100W to 02N112W. The ITCZ extends from 02N113W to 01N126W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N east of 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1021 mb centered near 26N126W extends a ridge southeastward to Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail W of the Baja California peninsula with locally strong winds along the coastal waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to locally moderate winds are along the southern half of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California and 3-4 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft along the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail offshore the Baja California peninsula, increasing to strong along the coastal waters N of Cabo San Lazaro at night through today. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will dominate offshore Baja Peninsula through mid-week. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail along the southern half of the Gulf of California through Tue. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin on Wed with fresh to strong N winds becoming near-gale force during the evening/night hours. NW swell will affect offshore Baja California from tonight through Mon night. A second set of swell will affect the offshore waters of Baja California Wed night through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through late next week. Moderate NE to E winds are noted over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas to 3 ft. Moderate SE winds are across the Costa Rica offshore waters with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail with seas of 3-6 ft, higher along the equatorial offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and moderate SE winds across the Costa Rica offshore waters will diminish to light to gentle this evening. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere and through the remainder forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high pressure is centered at 24N131W. South of the high, the gentle to moderate NE trades prevail W of 115W. Seas are 8-12 ft north of 08N and west of 127W due to W to NW swell. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, tranquil winds are forecast over the High Seas waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front should move across the waters north of 25N on Mon and Tue. The long-period NW swell will push southeastward while gradually diminishing, dropping below 8 ft by Sun night. $$ Ramos