000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112110 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... Very Heavy to Extreme Rainfall over Ecuador and Western Peru: The large-scale environment remains favorable for continued very heavy to extreme rainfall over portions of NW South America through late next week. Although the threat will exist on a daily basis, the risk is higher in Ecuador during late Sun through Tue morning, in NW Peru late Mon through Wed morning, and in W central Peru Mon and Tue. This rain may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 01N116W. The ITCZ extends from 01N116W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N east of 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1022 mb centered near 25N126W extends a ridge southeastward to Cabo San Lucas. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail W of the Baja California peninsula, while gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 3-5 ft across the offshore waters of Baja California and 3-4 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft along the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail offshore the Baja California peninsula, increasing to strong along the coastal waters N of Cabo San Lazaro at night through the weekend. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will dominate offshore Baja Peninsula through mid week. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail along the southern half of the Gulf of California through Tue. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may begin on Wed with fresh to strong N winds becoming near-gale force during the evening/night hours. NW swell will affect offshore Baja California from Sun night through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through late next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are prevailing across the S equatorial offshore waters with seas of 5-6 ft and in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail with seas of 3-4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region through tonight. In the Gulf of Panama and the Azuero Peninsula, moderate N to NE winds will continue through Sun. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere and through the remainder forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high pressure at 25N126W. South of the high, the gentle to moderate NE trades prevail W of 115W. Seas are 8-12 ft north of 08N and west of 127W due to W to NW swell. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, tranquil winds are forecast over the High Seas waters through the weekend. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a cold front should move across the waters north of 25N on Mon and Tue. The long-period NW swell will push southeastward while gradually diminishing, dropping below 8 ft by Sun night. $$ ERA