000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110400
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

Very Heavy to Extreme Rainfall over Ecuador and Western Peru: The
large-scale environment remains favorable for continued very 
heavy to extreme rainfall over portions of NW South America 
through late next week. Although the threat will exist on a daily
basis, the risk is higher in Ecuador during late Sun through Tue
morning, in NW Peru late Mon through Wed morning, and in W 
central Peru Mon and Tue. This rain may produce life-threatening 
flash floods and mudslides. Please refer to your local 
meteorological service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 03N97W to 00N114W. The 
ITCZ extends from 00N116W to 01S140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted south of 05N east of 90W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1020 mb centered near 25N126W extends a ridge 
southeastward to near Cabo San Lucas. NW winds are moderate to 
fresh west of the Baja California peninsula and moderate or 
weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the offshore waters of 
Baja California and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft along the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail 
offshore the Baja California peninsula, increasing to strong
along the coastal waters N of Cabo San Lazaro at night Sat and
Sun. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will dominate
offshore Baja Peninsula through Wed morning. Gentle to moderate
NW winds will develop along the southern half of the Gulf of
California Sat and prevail through Tue. The next Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event may begin on Wed with fresh to strong
winds becoming near gale force during the evening hours.
Otheriwse, a set of NW swell will build seas to 8 ft offshore 
Baja California from Sun night through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through late 
next week.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with seas of 3-5 ft. Moderate winds are also 
observed across the S equatorial offshore waters with seas of 5-6 
ft and in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle variable winds prevail with seas of 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. In the Gulf of Panama 
and the Azuero Peninsula, moderate N to NE winds will continue 
through Sun. Otherwise, light to gentle variable winds are 
expected elsewhere and through the remainder forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a deep low pressure system
northwest of the area and a 1020 mb high pressure at 25N126W is 
supporting gentle to moderate SW winds north of 25N W of 120W. 
South of the high, the NE trades are only gentle to moderate west
of 115W. Seas are 8-13 ft north of 15N and west of 128W due to W
to NW swell and SW wind waves. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.
 
For the forecast, tranquil winds are forecast over the High Seas
waters through Sun night. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of a 
new cold front should move across the waters north of 25N on Mon 
and Tue. The long-period NW swell will push southeastward while 
gradually diminishing, dropping below 8 ft by Sun night. 

$$
Ramos