000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101517
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1445 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over
portions of NW South America through Saturday. Five day rainfall
totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura and 
northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil region 
in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above average 
precipitation is expected in western Colombia with rainfall 
totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern Costa Rica 
where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer to your 
local meteorological service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N80W to 03N110W. The ITCZ 
extends from 03N110W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted S of 05N E of 88W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1022 mb centered near 26N123W extends a ridge 
southeastward to 12N100W. NW winds are moderate to fresh west of
the Baja California peninsula and moderate or weaker elsewhere.
Seas are 4-6 ft except 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail offshore the Baja California peninsula through Mon. Winds
will remain moderate or weaker across the remainder of the 
waters through early next week. A set of NW swell will build seas
to 8 ft offshore Baja California from Sun through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through
Saturday.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region with seas 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh W winds are 
also observed across the S equatorial offshore waters with seas 
4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the 
remainder of the offshore waters with seas 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Winds will be moderate 
or weaker elsewhere. Active convection will continue for the next
few days offshore western Panama and Costa Rica as well as the 
equatorial offshore zones with locally higher winds and seas 
possible. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between a deep low pressure system
northwest of the area and a 1022 mb high pressure at 26N123W is 
supporting fresh to strong SW winds north of 25N and west of 
130W. South of the high, the NE trades are only gentle to
moderate between 03N-20N west of 115W. Seas are 8-11 ft north of
23N and west of 132W due to W to NW swell and SW wind waves. 
Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft.
 
For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW winds will diminish
tonight as the pressure gradient weakens. Winds should then be
tranquil over the High Seas waters through Mon. The long-period
NW swell will push southeastward while gradually diminishing,
dropping below 8 ft by Sun night. 

$$ 
Landsea