000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092010 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of NW South America through Saturday. Five day rainfall totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura and northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil region in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above average precipitation is expected in western Colombia with rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern Costa Rica where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 03N111W. The ITCZ is south of the area. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N E of 82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds are observed over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6 to 7 ft range offshore Baja California, with seas of 4 to 6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are in the 1 to 2 ft range, reaching 3 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail offshore Baja California through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, locally strong near and north of Punta Eugenia at times. Winds will pulse to moderate or fresh in the central and southern Gulf of California during the afternoon and overnight hours through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. A set of NW swell will build seas to around 8 ft offshore Baja California by the end of the weekend into early next week. Little change in seas is forecast elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through Saturday. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in S to SW swell. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala and El Salvador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sun. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere, except moderate to fresh south of western Panama Fri night through Sat. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell form offshore Ecuador to offshore Galapagos Islands Fri through early next week, with little change in seas elsewhere. Active convection will continue offshore western Panama and Costa Rica with locally higher winds and seas possible. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between a deep low pressure system WNW of the area and high pressure over the discussion waters N of 20N is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW waters. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere W of 115W, and light to gentle winds E of 115W. NW swell has propagated into the NW waters, and seas have built to 8 to 10 ft over these waters. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient mentioned above will support fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater over the NW waters through Fri. Seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate eastward reaching to near 125W by the weekend, with seas of 12 ft or greater briefly north of 20N and west of 136W Fri night into early Sat. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the upcoming weekend, with fairly tranquil conditions expected for the start of next week. $$ AL