000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090130 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Mar 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ..SPECIAL FEATURES... The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over portions of NW South America through Saturday. Five day rainfall totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura and northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil region in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above average precipitation is expected in western Colombia with rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern Costa Rica where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to 04N96W to 00N118W. The ITCZ is south of the area. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.4S to 12N between 80W and 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the Baja California peninsula, reaching locally strong speeds within 60 nm of shore from near Punta Eugenia northward. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range in subsiding NW swell offshore Baja California, with seas of 3 to 6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are in the 1 to 2 ft range, reaching 3 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail offshore Baja California through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, locally strong near and north of Punta Eugenia at times. A surge of moderate to fresh NW winds will be in the central and southern Gulf of California tonight through Fri. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. NW swell will support seas greater than 8 ft offshore Baja California through Thu morning. A new set of NW swell may build seas to around 8 ft offshore Baja California by the end of the weekend into early next week. Little change in seas is forecast elsewhere. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America through Saturday. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, along with 5 ft seas. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere. Outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in S to SW swell, except 2 to 4 ft offshore Colombia. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala and El Salvador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sun. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere, except moderate to fresh south of western Panama Fri night through Sat. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell form offshore Ecuador to offshore Galapagos Islands Fri through early next week, with little change in seas elsewhere. Active convection will continue offshore western Panama and Costa Rica with locally higher winds and seas possible. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tight pressure gradient between troughing west of 140W, and high pressure over the waters N of 20N is producing an area of fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft over the far NW waters. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are found across the remainder of the open waters. Subsiding NW to N swell with seas of 7 to 9 ft is north of about 13N and east of 123W. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft mixed with SW swell east of 95W. For the forecast, the NW to N swell over the NE and central waters will decay through tonight. A cold front approaching 140W tonight into early Thu will support fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. The seas of 8 ft or greater will continue eastward reaching to near 125W by the weekend, and with seas of 12 ft or greater briefly north of 20N and west of 136W Fri night into early Sat. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the upcoming weekend, with fairly tranquil conditions expected for the start of next week. $$ Lewitsky