000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082024
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over
portions of NW South America through Saturday. Five day rainfall
totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura and 
northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil region 
in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above average 
precipitation is expected in western Colombia with rainfall 
totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern Costa Rica 
where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer to your 
local meteorological service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the Gulf of Panama and Azuero
Peninsula near 08N80W to 01N118W. The ITCZ is south of the area.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N 
to 10N between 79W and 92W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across 
the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
west of the Baja California peninsula, reaching locally strong 
speeds within 60 nm of shore from near Punta Eugenia northward. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 9 
ft range in subsiding NW swell offshore Baja California, with 
seas of 3 to 6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over
the Gulf of California, seas are in the 1 to 2 ft range, 
reaching 3 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Some haze continues to
be reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail 
through the week and into the weekend near and north of Punta 
Eugenia. A surge of moderate to fresh NW winds will be in the 
central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. 
Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the 
week and into the weekend. NW swell will support seas greater 
than 8 ft offshore Baja California through mid-week. Little 
change in seas is forecast elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, 
along with 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are also over the 
Gulf of Panama and the Azuero peninsula. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in 
the 3 to 5 ft range in S to SW swell, except 2 to 4 ft offshore 
Colombia. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of 
Guatemala and El Salvador. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse through the
end of the week and into the weekend offshore southern Nicaragua
including the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas will reach near 7 ft during
the period of peak winds. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell, except 
4 to 6 ft from offshore Ecuador to offshore the Galapagos 
Islands. Active convection will continue offshore western Panama 
and Costa Rica with locally higher winds and seas possible. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A tight pressure gradient between troughing west of 140W, and
high pressure over the waters N of 20N is producing an area of 
fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft over the far NW waters. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds are found across the 
remainder of the open waters. Subsiding NW to N swell with seas 
of 7 to 9 ft is north of about 16N and east of 121W. Seas are 
mainly 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft 
mixed with SW swell east of 95W.
 
For the forecast, the NW to N swell over the waters north of 16N
will decay through tonight. Low pressure and associated fronts 
west of 140W are expected to continue to bring fresh to strong E 
to SE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft over a portion of the NW waters
today. A cold front may approach 140W by early Thu, with fresh 
to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it 
spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. The seas of 8 ft or
greater will continue eastward reaching to near 125W by the 
weekend, and with seas of 12 ft or greater briefly north of 20N 
and west of 136W Fri night into early Sat. Little change in winds
is forecast elsewhere through the week and into the weekend.

$$
AL