361 
AXPZ20 KNHC 072020
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over
portions of NW South America through Saturday. Five day rainfall
totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura and 
northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil region 
in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above average 
precipitation is expected in western Colombia with rainfall 
totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern Costa Rica 
where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer to your 
local meteorological service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 08N88W to 02S116W. The 
ITCZ continues from 02S116W to 00N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N between 81W 
and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N 
between 122W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across 
the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
west of the Baja California peninsula, reaching strong speeds 
within 60 nm of shore from near Punta Eugenia northward. Light to
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range
in NW swell offshore the Baja California peninsula, with seas of
3 to 5 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over the 
Gulf of California, seas are in the 1 to 2 ft range, reaching 3
ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Some haze continues to be 
reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail 
through the week and into the weekend near and north of Punta 
Eugenia. A surge of moderate to fresh NW winds will be in the 
central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. 
Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the 
week and into the weekend. NW swell will support seas greater 
than 8 ft offshore Baja California through mid-week. Little 
change in seas is forecast elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the
potential for heavy rainfall over NW South America.

Moderate to fresh winds, and 5 to 6 ft seas, are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Gentle winds are from the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero
peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Outside of 
the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range in S to SW.
Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala
and El Salvador. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will 
pulse offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Wed, then pulse to moderate to fresh through the end of 
the week and into the weekend. Seas will reach near 7 ft during 
the period of fresh to strong winds. Winds will be moderate or 
weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to 
moderate winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of 20N and west of 135W.
Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Subsiding NW
to N swell, with seas of 8 to 10 ft, is north of about 17N. Seas
are mainly 5 to 7 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere, except 5 to 6 
ft mixed with SW swell east of 100W.
 
For the forecast, low pressure and associated fronts west of 
140W are expected to bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and 
seas of 9 to 10 ft over a portion of the NW waters through 
tonight. A cold front may approach 30N140W by early Thu, with 
fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it 
spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. The seas of 8 ft or
greater will continue eastward reaching to near 125W by the 
weekend, and with seas of 12 ft or greater briefly north of 20N 
and west of 136W Fri night into early Sat. Little change in winds
is forecast elsewhere through the week and into the weekend. The
large NW to N swell over the northern waters will spread seas of
8 ft or greater to near 15N by mid-week while gradually 
decaying.

$$
AL