000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070053
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Mar 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0010 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over
portions of NW South America tonight through Saturday. Five day 
rainfall totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura
and northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil
region in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above 
average precipitation is expected in western Colombia with 
rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern 
Costa Rica where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer 
to your local meteorological service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 00N109W. 
The ITCZ extends from 00N119W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 80W 
and 88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm 
either side of the trough between 88W and 101W, and from 03N to 
07N between 125W and 134W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across 
the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
west of the Baja California peninsula, except locally strong
within 60 nm of shore from near Punta Eugenia northward. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8 to
11 ft range in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, 6 to 8 
ft offshore Baja California Sur, and 4 to 5 ft elsewhere over the
open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are in
the 1 to 2 ft range. Some haze continues to be reported at 
coastal sites of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail 
through the week and into the weekend near and north of Punta 
Eugenia. A surge of moderate to fresh NW winds will be in the 
central and southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. 
Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the 
week and into the weekend. NW swell will build offshore Baja 
California through mid-week with seas of 7 to 11 ft. Little 
change in seas is forecast elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are in the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are from the Gulf of
Panama to the Azuero peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
prevail. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3 to 6 
ft range in S to SW. Some haze continues to be reported at 
coastal sites of Guatemala and El Salvador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse 
offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Tue night, then pulse to moderate to fresh through the 
end of the week and into the weekend. Seas will reach near 7 ft 
during the period of fresh to strong winds. Winds will be 
moderate or weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S 
to SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A trough/warm front extends to 140W northwest of 23N with
associated locally fresh to strong winds north of 23N and west 
of 137W. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters north of 
the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds. Large NW to N swell of 8 to
11 ft is north of about 20N. Seas are mainly 6 to 7 ft in NW to 
N swell elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft mixed with SW swell east of 
100W.
 
For the forecast, low pressure and associated fronts west of 
140W are expected to bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and 
seas of 9 to 11 ft over a portion of the NW waters tonight 
through Tue evening. A cold front may approach 30N140W by early 
Thu, with fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater 
ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. The
seas of 8 ft or greater will continue eastward reaching to near
125W by the weekend, and with seas of 12 ft or greater briefly
north of 20N and west of 136W Fri night into early Sat. Little 
change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the week and into 
the weekend. The large NW to N swell over the northern waters 
will spread seas of 8 ft or greater to near 15N by mid-week 
while gradually decaying.

$$
Lewitsky