000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062027
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

..SPECIAL FEATURES...

The large scale environment is favorable for heavy rainfall over
portions of NW South America tonight through Saturday. Five day 
rainfall totals may exceed 250 mm over interior portions of Piura
and northern Lambayeque in Peru, and in the Gulf of Guayaquil
region in southern and central Ecuador. In addition, above 
average precipitation is expected in western Colombia with 
rainfall totals in excess of 200 mm possible, and in southern 
Costa Rica where rainfall totals may exceed 150 mm. Please refer 
to your local meteorological service for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 02N111W. The ITCZ 
continues from 02N111W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03N to 10N between 80W and 90W, and from 03N to 
07N between 125W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across 
the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted
west of the Baja California peninsula. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds prevail. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range in NW 
swell offshore Baja California Norte, 6 to 7 ft offshore Baja 
California Sur, and 4 to 5 ft elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are in the 1 to 2 ft 
range. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of 
southern Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail 
through the week near and north of Punta Eugenia. A surge of 
moderate to fresh NW winds will be in the central and southern 
Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. Winds will be mainly 
moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. NW swell will 
build offshore Baja California through mid-week with seas of 7 to
11 ft. Little change in seas is forecast elsewhere. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are in the 
Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are south of the
Azuero peninsula. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. 
Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range 
in S to SW. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites 
of Guatemala and El Salvador. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse 
offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Tue night, then pulse to moderate to fresh through the 
end of the week. Seas will reach near 7 ft during the period of 
fresh to strong winds. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate winds
N of the ITCZ to near 20N, and west of 120W. Moderate winds are 
also noted N of 20N and W of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail elsewhere. Large NW to N swell of 8 to 11 ft is north of
about 22N. Seas are mainly 6 to 7 ft in NW to N swell elsewhere.
 
For the forecast, low pressure and associated fronts west of 
140W are expected to bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and 
seas of 9 to 11 ft over a portion of the NW waters tonight 
through Tue evening. A cold front may approach 30N140W by early 
Thu, with fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater 
ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. Little 
change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the week. 
The large NW to N swell over the northern waters will spread 
seas of 8 ft or greater to near 15N by mid-week while gradually 
decaying.

$$
AL