000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060152
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Mar 6 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from the Azuero Peninsula near 07N81W to
00N103W. The ITCZ extends from south of 03.4S through 03.4S117W
to 02S120W, then resumes from 02N131W to 02N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 80W and 90W,
from 02S to 03.4S between 90W and 95W, and from 03.4S to 03N
between 117W and 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across 
the offshore waters of Mexico. NW to N fresh to strong winds are
from near and north of Punta Eugenia. NW to N moderate or weaker
winds dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except SW 
to W nearshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell
offshore Baja California Norte, 5 to 7 ft offshore Baja 
California Sur, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft from 
near Cabo Corrientes to the entrance to the Gulf of California. 
Seas are 1 to 2 ft inside the Gulf of California. Some haze 
continues to be reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will 
prevail from near and north of Punta Eugenia through the week.
A surge of moderate to fresh NW winds will be in the central and
southern Gulf of California Thu night through Fri. Winds will 
be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. NW swell
will build offshore Baja California through mid-week with seas of
7 to 11 ft. Little change is seas is forecast elsewhere.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to near gale-force offshore winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are 
in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell from offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands, and 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the
waters. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are observed offshore Costa Rica and western Panama. This 
activity is associated with a surface trough and is expected to 
continue into Mon.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse 
offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Tue night, then pulse to moderate to fresh through the
end of the week. Seas are expected to reach to around 8 ft during
the fresh to strong winds. Winds will be mainly moderate or 
weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ, with
moderate or weaker winds across the open waters. Large NW to N
swell of 8 to 12 ft is north of 26N. Seas are mainly 6 to 7 ft in
NW to N swell elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft in SW swell east of 
100W.
 
For the forecast, low pressure and associated fronts west of 
140W are expected to introduce fresh to strong E to SE winds and 
seas of 9 to 11 ft over a portion of the NW waters from Mon 
night through Tue evening. A cold front may approach 30N140W by
early Thu, with associated fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 
8 ft or greater ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N through 
Thu night. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through
the week. Meanwhile, the large NW to N swell over the northern
waters will spread seas of 8 ft or greater to near 15N by mid-
week while gradually decaying.

$$
Lewitsky