000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052327 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2327 UTC Sun Mar 05 2023 Updated ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated A surface trough extends from 08N82W southwestward to 04N90W and to 01N103W. The ITCZ extends from 03.4S118W to 02S12W to the Equator at 131W and continues to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm northwest of the trough between 82W-88W and within 60-120 nm southeast of the trough between 82W- 86W. Similar activity is seen from 01N to 03N between 117W-125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across the offshore waters of Mexico. NW to N winds are moderate or weaker, except fresh in speeds north of Punta Eugenia. The latest ASCAT data pass over the Gulf of Tehuantepec shows moderate to fresh north winds extending downstream from the gap to near 14N. Seas there are 4-6 ft due to a long-period S to SW swell. Seas of 7-10 ft in a long-period NW swell at a period of 10-14 seconds are moving through the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft in long-period NW swell elsewhere, except 3-5 ft and mixed with long-period SW swell offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja California north of Punta Eugenia will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Thu night. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through mid-week, except locally fresh to strong over the offshore waters between cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia Tue through Thu night. Long-period NW to N swell will peak seas to 11 ft offshore Baja California Norte Tue and Tue night. Seas begin to subside on Wed. High pressure will shift southeastward to just west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters Fri and Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds and 5-7 ft seas are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft, as seen in a recent altimeter data pass, are due to a long-period S to SW swell are over the offshore waters from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Lower seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala and El Salvador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed offshore southern Costa Rica and northern Panama. This activity is associated with a surface trough. It is expected to continue into Mon. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue, then pulse to moderate to fresh through Thu, and diminish to gentle speeds afterward. Seas are expected to reach to 8 ft late tonight into early on Mon and again late Mon night into early on Tue. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a long-period S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate trade winds are present from near 03N to 24N west of 118W. Seas there are 5-7 ft due to a long-period NW to N swell at 13-16 seconds. Moderate or weaker trade winds are noted elsewhere. A new set of long-period NW to N swell at 13-15 seconds has propagated out ahead of a cold front that is north of the area, south to near 25N. It is producing seas of 8-10 ft over the waters west of Baja California Norte to near 125W and similar peak seas north of 27N and west of 125W. Latest altimeter data passes show seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 100W. For the forecast, low pressure and fronts west of 140W are expected to introduce fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 9-10 ft over a portion of the NW waters from Mon night through Tue afternoon. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through Wed night. A cold front may approach 30N140W Thu, with associated fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. This will mark the leading edge of a an extensive set of W to NW swell that will be moving into the western part of the area through the end of the week. The cold front north of the area approaching 32N and east of 135W will weaken and dissipate through early Tue as moves across the north-central northeast sections of the area. The leading edge of 8 ft seas related to the present NW to N swell over the area will reach the waters north of 17N by Mon night. It will continue to propagate south to near 12N by late Tue night and between 113W-130W. It will decay Wed. Seas with this swell event are expected to be 12 ft or greater north of about 29N and east of 132W starting late tonight and into Mon, then subside to less than 12 ft on Mon afternoon. $$ Aguirre