000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Mar 05 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W southwestward to 04N90W and to 01N103W. The ITCZ extends from 03.4S118W to 02S12W to the Equator at 131W and continues to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 120 nm southeast of the trough between 83W-85W, also within 120 northwest of the trough between 84W and 88W and from the Equator to 02N between 118W-127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across the offshore waters of Mexico. Winds are moderate or weaker, except locally fresh near Punta Eugenia where they are locally fresh. A recent ASCAT data pass over the Gulf of Tehuantepec shows moderate to fresh north winds extending downstream from the gap to near 14N. Seas there are 4-6 ft due to a long-period S to SW swell. Seas of 7-10 ft in a long-period NW swell at a period of 10-14 seconds are moving through the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft in long-period NW swell elsewhere, except 3-5 ft and mixed with long-period SW swell offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California by early Thu due to a strong cold front in the vicinity. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through mid-week, locally fresh nearshore Oaxaca by mid-week. Meanwhile, long-period NW to N swell producing seas to 10 ft offshore Baja California Norte will become reinforced tonight and spread southeast with seas of 7 to 11 ft reaching to 110W by mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds and 5-7 ft seas are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas of 4-6 ft, as seen in a recent altimeter data pass, are due to a long-period S to SW swell are over the offshore waters from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Lower seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala and El Salvador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed well offshore southern Costa Rica and northern Panama. This activeity is associated with a surface trough. It is expected to continue into Mon. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue, then pulse to moderate to fresh thereafter. Seas are expected to be 5-7 ft with the fresh to strong winds, except reaching to 8 ft late tonight into early on Mon and again late Mon night into early on Tue. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a long- period S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate trade winds are present from near 03N to 24N west of 118W. Seas there are 5-7 ft due to a long-period NW to N swell at 13-16 seconds. Moderate or weaker trade winds are noted elsewhere. A new set of long-period NW to N swell at 13-15 seconds has propagated out ahead of a cold front that is north of the area, south to near 25N. It is producing seas of 8-10 ft over the waters west of Baja California Norte to near 125W and similar peak seas north of 27N and west of 125W. Latest altimeter data passes show seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 100W. For the forecast, low pressure and fronts west of 140W are expected to introduce fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 9-10 ft over a portion of the NW waters from Mon night through Tue afternoon. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through Wed night. A cold front may approach 30N140W Thu, with associated fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. This will mark the leading edge of a an extensive set of W to NW swell that will be moving into the western part of the area through the end of the week. The cold front north of the area approaching 32N and east of 135W will weaken and dissipate through early Tue as moves across the north-central northeast sections of the area. The leading edge of 8 ft seas realted to the present NW to N swell over the area will reach the waters north of 20N by Mon night, then to the waters north of 15N by Tue night before decaying. Seas with this swell event are expected to be 12 ft or greater north of about 29N and east of 135W tonight into early Mon before subsiding to less than 12 ft. $$ Aguirre