000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051559
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Mar 05 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends low pressure over northwest Colombia,
southwestward to 08N82W to 05N90W and to 01N102W. The ITCZ 
extends from 01N120W to the Equator at 130W and to below the
Equator at 131W. A second ITCZ extends from 03S113W to beyond
120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 
150 nm south of the trough between 83W-86W. Scattered moderate 
is within 30 nm north of the trough between 84W-87W, and also
from 04S to 02S between 115W-120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends northwest to southeast across 
the offshore waters of Mexico. Winds are moderate or weaker, 
except locally fresh near Punta Eugenia where they are locally 
fresh. Seas of 7-9 ft in a long-period NW swell at a period of
10-14 seconds are moving through the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft in long-period NW swell
elsewhere, except 3-5 ft and mixed with long-period SW swell 
offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of
California. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites 
of southern Mexico.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec through the morning. Winds will increase to 
moderate to fresh offshore Baja California from near Cabo San 
Lazaro northward this afternoon, then increase to fresh to 
strong tonight through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will 
develop in the northern Gulf of California by early Thu due to a 
strong cold front in the vicinity. Winds will be mainly moderate 
or weaker elsewhere through mid-week, locally fresh nearshore 
Oaxaca by mid-week. Meanwhile, long-period NW swell will support
seas to around 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte today, 
getting reinforced tonight and spreading southeast with seas of 7
to 11 ft reaching to 110W by mid-week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong offshore winds and 4-6 ft seas are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere per earlier 
ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas of 4-6 ft due to a long-period S 
to SW swell are over the offshore waters from Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands. Lower seas of 3-4 ft are elsewhere. Some haze
continues to be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala and El 
Salvador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse
offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo
through early Tue, then pulse to moderate to fresh thereafter.
Seas are expected to be 5-7 ft with the fresh to strong winds,
except reaching to 8 ft late tonight into early on Mon and 
again late Mon night into early on Tue. Winds will be mainly 
moderate or weaker elsewhere, along with seas of 3-5 ft due to a 
long-period S to SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are present from near 04N to 22N west of 
120W as noted in an overnight ASCAT data pass over that part 
of the area. Seas there are 6-8 ft due to a long-period NW to N
swell at 13-15 seconds. The overnight ASCAT data passes depict
mainly moderate or weaker trade winds elsewhere. A new set of
long-period NW to N swell at 13-15 seconds has propagated out 
ahead of a cold front that is north of the area, south to near
25N. It is producing seas of 8-10 ft over the waters west of 
Baja California Norte to near 130W. latest altimeter data passes
show seas of 5-7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 100W.
 
For the forecast, low pressure and fronts west of 140W may 
spread associated fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 8 ft 
or greater across the NW waters Mon night through Tue night. 
Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through Wed night. A
cold front may approach 30N140W Thu, with associated fresh to 
strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it spreading
southeast of 30N through Thu night. Meanwhile, the front north 
of 30N will dissipate as it nears 30N while the associated swell 
gets reinforced pushing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters 
north of 20N by Mon night, then to the waters north of 15N by Tue
night before decaying. Seas with this swell event are expected 
to be 12 ft or greater north of about 29N and east of 135W 
tonight into early Mon before subsiding to less than 12 ft.

$$
Aguirre