000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050731 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near 07N78W to 06N90W to 01N106W. The ITCZ extends along the Equator between 109W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 80W and 90W, and from and from 02N to 04N between 94W and 97W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends from northwest to southeast across the offshore waters of Mexico. Winds are moderate or weaker, except locally fresh near Punta Eugenia where they are locally fresh. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell are moving into the waters offshore Baja California Norte. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in NW swell elsewhere, except 3 to 5 ft and mixed with SW swell offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of southern Mexico. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the morning. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northward this afternoon, then increasing to fresh to strong tonight through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California by early Thu due to a strong cold front in the vicinity. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through mid-week, locally fresh nearshore Oaxaca by mid-week. Meanwhile, NW swell will support seas to around 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte through today, getting reinforced tonight and spreading southeast with seas of 7 to 11 ft reaching to 110W by mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong offshore winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and to 2 to 4 ft elsewhere per recent altimeter data. Some haze continues to be reported at coastal sites of Guatemala and El Salvador. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue, then pulse to moderate to fresh thereafter. Seas will occasionally build to 5 to 7 ft with the fresh to strong winds. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, along with 3 to 5 ft seas in S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh trades are from near 04N to 22N west of 120W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft, mixed with NW to N swell. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere. A dissipating front is north of 30N, while associated NW to N swell of 7 to 10 ft has pushed ahead and is north of about 26N per a recent altimeter pass. Seas are mainly 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 100W. For the forecast, a system west of 140W may spread associated fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 8 ft or greater across the NW waters Mon night through Tue night. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through Wed night. A cold front may approach 30N140W Thu, with associated fresh to strong SW winds and seas of 8 ft or greater ahead of it spreading southeast of 30N through Thu night. Meanwhile, the front north of 30N will dissipate as it nears 30N while the associated swell gets reinforced pushing seas of 8 ft or greater to the waters north of 20N by Mon night, then to the waters north of 15N by Tue night before decaying. Seas with this swell event will be 12 ft or greater north of 28N and east of 135W tonight into early Mon before subsiding to less than 12 ft. $$ Lewitsky