000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042321 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2321 UTC Sat Mar 04 2023

Updated ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery 
through 2300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated

A surface trough extends from low pressure over northwestern 
Colombia westward to across northern Panama and Costa Rica, and
southwestward to 10N89W to 05N92W to 01N97W and to 02S108W, where
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
the ITCZ to 01S120W 01N127W and to 03S140W. A second ITCZ is
analyzed south of 03.4S between 118W and beyond 120W. Scattered 
moderate convection is south of the trough from 05N to 08N 
between 82W-89W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to control the general weather pattern
over the offshore forecast waters of Mexico. Mainly moderate NW 
to N winds are offshore Baja California Norte and gentle to 
moderate NW winds are are offshore Baja California Sur. Gentle 
NW winds are the Gulf of California, except for gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds over the waters between Cabo San Lucas 
and to near Cabo Corrientes. The earlier NW swell offshore
Baja California has subsided to just below 8 ft, with seas there
presently in the range of 5-7 ft. Similar seas are elsewhere 
offshore Mexico mainly in NW swell, except mixed with SW swell 
offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. In the Gulf of California, seas are 
1-2 ft in the northern Gulf, 2-4 ft in the central Gulf and 
southern Gulf sections. Hazy skies are inland and near the coast 
of southeastern Mexico per remarks seen in recent surface 
meteorological observations along that part of the Mexican coast.

For the forecast, NW to N winds offshore Baja California will 
change little through tonight, then increase to moderate to 
fresh offshore Baja California Norte on Sun and to fresh to 
strong there Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens, 
reaching to near Cabo San Lazaro by early Mon. The gentle to 
moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Sur will increase to 
the moderate to fresh on Sun, change little through Mon night, 
then increase to fresh to locally strong Tue and be at mainly 
fresh speeds Wed through Thu night. Moderate to fresh NW to N 
winds will develop and spread from the northern to the central 
Gulf of California Tue until Tue night and diminish to gentle 
speeds Wed. Fresh to strong winds may develop in the far northern
Gulf of California late Wed night ahead and behind a cold front.
Long-period NW swell has recently begun to propagate through the
offshore waters of Baja California Norte. The swell is expected 
to build seas to the range of 7-9 ft from Cabo San Lazaro 
northward through Sun afternoon before it decays. Yet, in what 
appears to be never ending NW pulses of swell to impact the 
area, another set of long-period NW swell will move into the 
area early next week bringing the leading edge of seas of 8 ft 
or greater to near 110W by around mid-week. Winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec may pulse to N at moderate to fresh speeds tonight 
into early Sun afternoon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are just offshore the Gulf of 
Papagayo region, with mainly light to gentle winds elsewhere as 
depicted in the latest ASCAT data pass over that part of the
area. Seas are 3-5 ft due to a long-period S to SW swell 
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and lower seas of 2-4 
ft are elsewhere. Hazy skies are being reported by a few surface 
meteorological observations from El Salvador and Guatemala. It is
possible that similar conditions are being observed over some 
of the offshore waters zones.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds offshore 
southern Nicaragua and in and near the Gulf of Papagayo will 
begin to pulse to fresh to strong beginning on Sun. Seas will 
build to 5-7 ft during the pulsing fresh to strong winds, except 
possibly reaching 8 ft by early on Mon. Winds will pulse to 
moderate in the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula 
through the next several days, with light to gentle winds across 
the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas will be mainly in the 
3-5 ft range due to a long-period S to SW swell, except building
to 4-6 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands tonight 
through Mon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate 
to locally fresh trade winds prevail north of about 06N and west
of 118W, with mainly light to gentle winds elsewhere. The 
earlier fresh to strong trade winds that were over the western 
part of the area roughly from 12N to 16N W of 137W have
diminished slightly to fresh speeds as were noted in a recent 
ASCAT pass that sampled that part of the area. Seas there remain 
at 7-8 ft, but are forecast to lower to 5-7 ft tonight. 
Elsewhere, seas are mainly 5-7 ft with the highest of these 
located S of about 21N and W of 120W. The exception is in the 
far northern part of the area east of about 134W, where seas to 
8 ft are present due to the recent arrival a set of long-period 
NW swell.
 
For the forecast, a system west of 140W may spread associated 
fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 8 ft or greater across 
the NW waters early Mon through early Wed. Little change in 
winds is forecast elsewhere. The NW swell that is presently 
moving through the far northern part of the area will send seas 
of 8 ft or greater to near 24N by early on Sun. Another set of 
NW swell will push south of 30N Sun, with seas of 8 ft or 
greater covering most of the waters north of about 16N and west 
of 119W by Mon evening. The swell is forecast to gradually decay 
through mid-week. Seas of 12 ft or greater will spread south of 
30N by Sun evening, reaching to near 28N before subsiding to 
less than 12 ft early on Mon afternoon.

$$
Aguirre