000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042033 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Mar 04 2023 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected A surface trough extends from low pressure over northwestern Colombia southwestward to 07N81W and to 08N89W to 01N100W and to 01S108W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the the ITCZ to 01N118W to 02N124W and to 01N132W. A second ITCZ is south of 03.4S between 117W and beyond 120W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the trough within 30 nm of a line from 06N81W to 05N87W. Of note, during March and April of each year, a second ITCZ is present in the southern hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin, especially during La Nina events when the cold equatorial sea surface temperatures are stronger. This rather special situation is currently analyzed on the surface map. Forecast models continue to show a well defined second ITCZ south of the equator through at least Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Mexico, with a weak trough along the mainland coast of the central and southern Gulf of California. Overnight ASCAT data passes indicate mainly moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California, except for fresh wind speeds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. The ASCAT data passes also indicated moderate NW winds over the central and southern sections of the Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere, including in the northern Gulf of California. NW swell offshore Baja California has subsided to just below 8 ft, with seas there presently in the range of 5-7 ft. Similar seas are elsewhere offshore Mexico in mainly NW swell, except mixed with SW swell offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-2 ft in the northern Gulf, 2-4 ft in the central Gulf, and 3-5 ft in the southern Gulf. Areas of haze due to agricultural fires are likely over the offshore waters of southeastern Mexico. For the forecast, NW to N moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters of Mexico will change little through this evening, except increase to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Norte. These winds will then increase to fresh to strong there Sun night as the pressure gradient tightens, reaching to near Cabo San Lazaro by early Mon. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will develop and spread from the northern to the central Gulf of California Tue until Tue night. Fresh to strong winds may develop in the far northern Gulf of California late Wed night. A new set of long-period NW swell will propagate through the offshore waters of Baja California Norte this afternoon, building seas to 7-9 ft from Cabo San Lazaro northward through Sun afternoon, with yet another NW swell set early next week pushing seas of 8 ft or greater to 110W by mid-week. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may pulse to moderate to fresh Sat night into early Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are offshore the Gulf of Papagayo region, with mainly light to gentle winds elsewhere per overnight ASCAT data passes. Seas are 3-5 ft due to a long-period S to SW swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and lower seas of 2-4 ft are elsewhere. Areas of light smoke and haze due to agricultural fires are over the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse offshore Nicaragua today, then pulse to fresh to strong thereafter. Seas will build to 5-7 ft during the pulsing fresh to strong winds, except possibly reaching 8 ft by early on Mon. Winds will pulse to moderate in the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through the next several days, with light to gentle winds across the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas will be mainly in the 3-5 ft range due to a long-period S to SW swell, except building to 4-6 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands tonight through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail north of about 07N and west of 115W, with mainly light to gentle winds elsewhere. The exception is in the far western part of the area where a small area of fresh to strong trade winds is confined from 12N to 16N W of 137W. Seas there are 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, seas are mainly 5-7 ft with the highest of these located S of about 21N and W of 120W. For the forecast, a system west of 140W may spread associated fresh to strong E to SE winds and seas of 8 ft or greater across the NW waters early Mon through early Wed. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere. The small area of strong trade winds over the far western part of the area will diminish by early this afternoon. A new set of long-period NW swell will push south of 30N this morning with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to near 24N by early Sun. Another set of NW swell will push south of 30N Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering most of the waters north of 15N and west of 115W by Mon evening, then gradually decaying through mid-week. Seas of 12 ft or greater will spread south of 30N by Sun evening, reaching to near 28N before subsiding to less than 12 ft early Mon afternoon. $$ Aguirre