000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032127
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to  
06N90W to 02N105W. The ITCZ extends from 01N115W to 05N140W. A 
second and more active ITCZ is noted south of the equator. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 10N W of 136W.

Of note, during March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is
present in the southern hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin,
especially during La Nina events when the cold equatorial sea
surface temperatures are stronger. This rather special situation
is analyzed today on the surface map. Forecast models continue 
to show a well defined second ITCZ south of the equator through
at least Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds. Fresh to locally
strong NW to N winds are noted in the Gulf of California south 
of 27N, spilling south of the entrance as well as offshore Cabo 
Corrientes with 5 to 7 ft seas. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf
of California N of 27N. Based on a recent altimeter pass, seas 
of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell dominate the offshore forecast waters 
of Baja California. Areas of light smoke and haze due to agricultural
fires are likely over the offshore waters of SE Mexico.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California during the
upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten some across
the waters W of Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon through
Wed supporting fresh to locally strong NW to N winds. The fresh 
to locally strong winds over the southern Gulf of California and 
near Cabo Corrientes will diminish to moderate or weaker by early
this evening. Seas will continue to subside to 5 to 7 ft across 
the offshore waters of Baja California by Sat morning. At this 
time, a new swell event is forecast to reach the waters N of 29N 
with building seas of 8 to 9 ft late on Sat. Additional pulses of
NW swell will continue to propagate through the waters west of 
Baja California through Tue. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected N of
Punta Eugenia by Mon morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate NE to E offshore winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, with mainly gentle NW to N winds in the Gulf of Panama.
Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are generally 3
to 5 ft with the exception of 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of Panama,
and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Areas of light smoke 
and haze due to agricultural fires are likely over the offshore 
forecast waters of Central America between Costa Rica and 
Guatemala. 

For the forecast, light winds will prevail in the Papagayo region
trough Sat. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds offshore
Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Papagayo by Sat night, then to 
fresh to strong Sun through Tue as high pressure builds N of the 
area. Seas will build to 7 or 8 ft, especially at night with the 
strongest winds. In the Gulf of Panama, mainly gentle winds will
prevail through the forecast period. Gentle winds are also expected
elsewhere with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range primarily in SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the waters north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong 
trades are noted from near 10N to 20N west of 136W, with 8 to 10
ft seas in mixed NE to E wind waves and NW to N swell. Moderate 
to fresh trades are noted elsewhere per scatterometer data north
of about 05N and west of 110W, along with 6 to 8 ft seas in 
mainly NW to N swell. Winds are light to gentle moderate across 
the remainder of the open waters with seas of 4 to 7 ft primarily
in SW swell. 

For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trades will diminish
by this evening as the ridge weakens. Meanwhile the NW to N 
swell will also subside. A new set of NW swell with seas of 8 ft 
or greater will drop south of 30N early Sat, reaching to near 24N
by early Sun. Another set of NW swell will push south of 30N 
Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater covering most of the waters N
of 20N and W of 110W by Mon evening. Fresh to strong SE winds 
associated with a warm front west of the area may spread into the
NW waters early next week.

$$
GR