000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030135
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 3 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from near the border of Colombia and
Panama at 07N78W to 01N105W. The ITCZ extends from 01N114W to
03N140W. No significant convection is noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds. A dissipating cold
front extends from north-central Mexico to across the southern
Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW
to N winds are noted in the Gulf of California south of 27N
spilling south of the entrance as well as offshore Cabo
Corrientes, with 4 to 7 ft seas. Seas are 3 ft or less elsewhere
in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell are 
from near 109W westward including across the waters offshore Baja
California. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, except 
locally fresh offshore Oaxaca, along with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed
SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, ridging will continue to support moderate to 
fresh winds offshore Baja California with fresh to strong winds 
from near Cabo Corrientes to the Gulf of California south of 27N 
through Fri before diminishing. Seas of 8 ft or greater in NW 
swell west of 109W will subside through Fri evening, then 
building to 8 ft or greater in a new set of NW swell offshore 
Baja California Norte Sat afternoon, getting reinforced and 
spreading to near 110W by early next week. Fresh to strong NW to 
N winds will develop offshore Baja California from near Punta 
Eugenia northward early next week as the pressure gradient 
tightens.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Winds
are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft in S
to SW swell across the offshore waters. Some haze is being
reported near the coast and offshore El Salvador and Guatemala 
due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh offshore winds are
forecast offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo 
through early Sun, then fresh to strong thereafter with local 
seas of 5 to 7 ft. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere 
with little change in sea heights.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the ITCZ.
Fresh to strong trades are noted from near 09N to 21N west of
120W, with 10 to 13 ft seas in mixed NE to E wind waves and NW to
N swell. Moderate to fresh trades elsewehre north of about 09N 
and west of 110W, along with 7 to 11 ft seas in mainly NW to N 
swell. Winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4 to 7 ft across
the remainder of the open waters. No significant convection is 
evident across the basin.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong trades will
diminish by Fri night as the ridging weakens. Meanwhile the NW to
N swell will also subside. A new set of NW swell with seas of 8
ft or greater will drop south of 30N by Sat morning, reaching to
near 24N by early Sun. Another set of NW swell will push south of
30N Sun, with seas of 12 ft or greater north of 28N by early Mon,
then decaying to less than 12 ft by Mon afternoon. The edge of
seas of 8 ft or greater will continue southward, reaching to
around 10N by early next week. Fresh to strong SE winds
associated with a warm front west of the area may spread into 
the NW waters early next week.

$$
Lewitsky