000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
03N100W. The ITCZ continues from 03N110W to 02N120W to beyond 
02N140W. As it is normal for this time of the year, a second ITCZ
is south of the Equator. No significant convection.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds. A recent scatterometer
pass indicates fresh to strong NW to N winds over the southern 
Gulf of California, and near Los Cabos, particularly from 20N to 
23N between 109W and 114N where seas are 8 ft. Seas continue to
subside over the waters W of Baja California. Currently, seas of
8 to 12 ft are noted N of Cabo San Lazaro, with the highest seas
N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle W to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft are evident
off southern Mexico, south of 20N. Gale to near strong force 
westerly winds are blowing E of the Sierra Madre Occidental, 
affecting the states of Chihuahua, Durango and Coahuila. The 
winds blow between canyons over a high terrain (gap wind effect) 
and then intensify.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather 
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California the
remainder of the week producing moderate to locally fresh NW to 
N winds. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the southern  
Gulf of California through Fri morning, spreading beyond the
entrance to the Gulf to near Las Marias Islands. Fresh to strong 
NW winds are also expected near Cabo Corrientes beginning this 
evening through Fri morning. Seas will subside to 8 to 9 ft W of 
Baja California by Fri morning, and to 5 to 7 ft by Sat morning.
At this time, a new swell event is forecast to reach the waters 
N of 29N. Additional pulses of NW swell will propagate through 
the waters west of Baja California through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Satellite derived wind data show moderate to fresh NE to E in 
the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to 89W. Similar wind speeds 
are noted across the offshore waters between Papagayo and 
Fonseca. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are over the Gulf of 
Panama. Light winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat. Winds will increase to moderate
to fresh speeds Sun through Mon night as high pressure builds N
of area. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast in the Gulf of
Panama through tonight, then mainly light winds will prevail 
afterwards. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate 
seas will persist elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Based on recent scatterometer data, fresh to strong NE to E winds
are observed from 07N to 21N west of 130W. These winds are the 
result of the pressure gradient between strong high pressure
located NW of the area and lower pressures in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ. Seas 8 ft or greater dominate most of the waters N of 
20N and W of 110W, and from 05N to 20N W of 120W. This is a 
combination of wind waves along with long period NW swell. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds are seen from 10N to 15N between 120W 
and 130W. Elsewhere W of 110W, mainly gentle to moderate winds 
prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle breezes and seas in the 3 
to 5 ft range are east of 110W. No significant weather is evident
across the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish over the west-
central waters through Sat as high pressure north of the area
weakens and existing swell decays. A new swell event will enter 
the waters north of 28N east of 135W Sat, followed by another 
northerly swell group forecast to move into the waters south of 
30N Sun, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft reaching 24N/25N 
by Mon morning. Winds may increase across the NW corner of the 
forecast region also on Mon as a low pressure system located W 
of area moves towards the N. 

$$
GR