000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: Buoys off southern California 
continue to show very large combined seas, reaching as high as
15t. The very large waves are in part due to strong to near- 
gale force NW winds following a cold front, but also longer- 
period NW swell that has been impacting the waters off Baja 
California north of Punta Eugenia east of 125W for the past 
couple of days. The winds will diminish through the morning, and 
the swell will decay enough for combined seas to subside below 12
ft this afternoon. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N110W to 02N130W to beyond 
02N140W. As it is normal for this time of the year, a second 
ITCZ is south of the Equator. No significant convection.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing northerly swell event.

A cold front crosses the Gulf of California and the Baja California
Peninsula near 27N and continues westward to 26N120W to 29N130W.
Fresh to strong NW winds follow the front E of 123W with seas in
excess of 12 ft in NW swell. Fresh NW winds and seas of 8 to 9 
ft in NW are noted across the remainder of the offshore waters of
Baja California. Winds have diminished below gale force in the
Gulf of California, and now fresh to strong NW winds prevail 
between 27N and 30N with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Gentle W to NW 
winds and 3 to 5 ft are evident off southern Mexico, south of 
20N. 

For the forecast, the cold front will move eastward over NW
Mexico while dissipating. A ridge will follow the front. Fresh 
to strong winds will persist over parts of the Gulf of California
through Fri morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh
across the offshore waters of Baja California by this afternoon.
Large NW swell in the wake of the front will subside Fri night.
Additional sets of NW swell will propagate through the waters 
west of Baja California Sat through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted across the 
Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to 88W this morning. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Light winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in
the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat. Winds will increase to moderate
to fresh speeds Sun through Mon night as high pressure builds N
of area. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast in the Gulf of
Panama through tonight, then mainly light winds prevail afterwards.
Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas persist 
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a northerly swell event.

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are observed from roughly 07N to 
22N west of 125W. These trade winds are south of a ridge that
dominates the forecast region N of 15N W of 110W. Seas 8 ft or
greater dominate most of the waters N of 20N and W of 110W, and
from 05N to 20N w of 120W. This is a combination of wind waves 
along with long period NW swell. Moderate NE to E winds and 5 to
7 ft seas are evident elsewhere west of 120W, with gentle breezes
and 3 to 5 waves east of 120W. No significant weather is evident
across the basin.

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish over tropical
waters south of 20N through Sat as high pressure weakens north of
the area and existing swell decays. New swell will enter the
waters north of 28N east of 135W Sat, followed by another
northerly swell group moves into the waters south of 30N Sun,
with combined seas in excess of 8 ft reaching 25N by late Mon.

$$
GR