000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020354
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Mar 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Gale-force SW winds in the 
northern Gulf of California will will shift to NW overnight as a
strong cold front moves across Baja California Norte and the 
Gulf of California. Seas are forecast to build up to 10 ft 
during this period. 

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: Reinforcing long-period NW period 
has begun to propagate through the NE forecast waters in the 
wake a strong cold front. This set of swell will spread 
southward, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to 
near 17N between 110W-118W, and to near 13N between 118W-124W by 
Thu morning. Maximum seas forecast from this swell event will be 
in the range of 10-16 ft at a period of 10-14 seconds, with the 
highest of the seas expected north of about 27N between Baja 
California Norte and 124W this evening into early Thu. The swell 
will begin to decay on Thu afternoon. Updated Please read the 
latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details 
on both the Gale Warning and on the Swell Event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N90W. The ITCZ from
05N90W to 05N120W to beyond 01N140W. No significant weather is
evident.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing northerly swell event and on a Gulf of California Gale 
Warning.

A strong cold front has started to move across the NW part of 
Baja California. It extends southwestward to near 30N125W.
Meanwhile, strong high pressure of 1038 mb remains centered well
to the NW of the discussion area. Associated ridging extends 
southeastward from this high center to across the Baja California
peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting fresh NW to N 
winds across Baja California and its offshore waters and also at 
the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas over these waters 
are 8-12 ft in long-period NW swell, except for higher seas of 
10-16 ft north of 27N. Gentle to moderate NW winds are over the 
southern Gulf of California along with seas to 4 ft while fresh 
SW winds are across the northern gulf. Light to gentle variable 
winds are elsewhere along with seas to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, a strong cold front is moving across northern 
Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California, This 
pattern is allowing SW winds to gale force over the northern Gulf
of California, becoming NW winds by late morning before 
diminishing. Strong to near-gale force winds will also affect the
offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia overnight. Large NW swell
in the wake of the front will subside Fri night. Another set of 
NW swell will begin to propagate through the waters west of Baja 
California from Sat through Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo
with seas to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are also in
the Gulf of Panama extending past the Azuero Peninsula with seas
to 6 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere along with seas of 
3-4 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, winds offshore southern Nicaragua including 
the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at fresh to strong speeds tonight
and into Thu morning with seas peaking to around 7 ft. Moderate 
to fresh winds will then continue through Fri before increasing 
again to fresh to strong speeds at night on Sun and Mon. Fresh N 
to NE winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Otherwise, 
winds will remain light to gentle elsewhere during the forecast 
period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on a northerly swell event.

Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are just north of 
the ITCZ extending to near 22N and west of 120W as suggested by 
an ASCAT data pass over that part of the discussion area. These 
winds are the result of the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure north of the forecast waters and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas within this area of trade winds are in
the 8-12 ft range, with the highest of the seas present from 
about 14N north to 23N and west of 133W. Moderate to fresh N to 
NE winds are elsewhere across the area along with seas of 6-8 ft 
in NW to N swell, except for significantly higher seas of 10-13 
ft N of 27N between 120W-132W. Higher seas peaking to 18 ft are 
just north of the discussion area between 120W-124W.

$$
Christensen/Aguirre