000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012203 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 01 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Near gale-force SW winds in in the northern Gulf of California will increase to gale-force this evening as a strong cold front moves across the Baja California Norte and the Gulf of California. Gale-force NW winds will follow the front over the Gulf waters north f 29N for several hours tonight into early Thu. Seas are forecast to build up to 10 ft during this period. Brief gales are also anticipated for the waters N of Punta Eugenia north of 31N early tonight. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: Reinforcing long-period NW period has begun to propagate through the NE forecast waters in the wake a strong cold front. This set of swell will spread southward, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to near 17N between 110W-118W, and to near 13N between 118W-124W by Thu morning. Maximum seas forecast from this swell event will be in the range of 10-16 ft at a period of 10-14 seconds, with the highest of the seas expected north of about 27N between Baja California Norte and 124W this evening into early Thu. The swell will begin to decay late on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both the Gale Warning and on the Swell Event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia southwestward to 08N82W and to 04N93W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N110W to 03N120W to 01N130W and to 02N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 04S95W to 04S110W to 05S120W. No significant convection is noted at the present time. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing northerly swell event and on a Gulf of California Gale Warning. A strong cold front has started to move across the NW part of Baja California. It extends southwestward to near 30N125W. Meanwhile, strong high pressure of 1037 mb remains centered well to the NW of the discussion area. Associated ridging extends southeastward from this high center to across the Baja California peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting fresh NW to N winds across Baja California and its offshore waters and at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas over these waters are 8-12 ft in long-period NW swell, except for higher seas of 10-16 ft north of 27N. Gentle to moderate NW winds are over the southern Gulf of California along with seas to 4 ft while fresh SW winds are across the northern gulf. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, near gale-force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will increase to gale-force this evening as the aforementioned front moves across the Baja California Norte and northern Gulf of California. Gale-force NW winds will follow the front over the Gulf waters N of 29N for several hours tonight into early Thu. Strong to gale-force W to NW winds will also affect the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia this evening with fresh to strong winds extending southward to Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Large NW swell in the wake of the front will subside Fri night. Yet another set of NW swell will begin to propagate through the waters west of Baja California from Sat through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are also in the Gulf of Panama extending past the Azuero Peninsula with seas to 6 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere along with seas of 3-4 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, winds offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at fresh to strong speeds tonight and into Thu morning with seas peaking to around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds will then continue through Fri before increasing again to fresh to strong speeds at night on Sun and Mon. Fresh N to NE winds will occur in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Otherwise, winds will remain light to gentle elsewhere during the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on a northerly swell event. Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are just north of the ITCZ extending to near 22N and west of 120W as suggested by an ASCAT data pass over that part of the discussion area. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the forecast waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas within this area of trade winds are in the 8-12 ft range, with the highest of the seas present from about 14N north to 23N and west of 133W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere across the area along with seas of 6-8 ft in NW to N swell, except for significantly higher seas of 10-13 ft N of 27N between 120W-132W. Higher seas peaking to 18 ft are just north of the discussion area between 120W-124W. $$ Aguirre