000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 01 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 15430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will increase to near gale-force speeds this morning ahead of a strong cold front forecast to move across the Baja California Norte and the Gulf itself this evening. Gale- force NW winds will follow the front over the Gulf waters N of 29.5N for several hours tonight into early Thu. Seas are forecast to build up to 10 ft during this period. Brief gales are also anticipated for the waters N of Punta Eugenia N of 31N late this afternoon into early in the evening. Eastern Pacific Swell Event: The leading edge of a new set of long-period NW swell is propagating into the NE forecast waters. This swell will be reinforced by another set of NW swell that will approach these same waters W of Baja California beginning today as a strong cold front moves across the region. The swell will spread southward, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching to near 17N between 110W-118W, and to near 13N between 118W-124W by Thu morning. Maximum seas forecast from this swell event will be in the range of 10-16 ft at a period of 10-14 seconds, with the highest of the seas expected N of about 27N between Baja California Norte and 124W this evening into early Thu. The swell will begin to decay late on Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on both the Gale Warning and on the Swell Event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwestern Colombia southwestward to 08N82W and to 04N92W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02N110W to 03N120W to 01N132W and to 02N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 04S93W to 04S105W to 04S110W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 84W-88W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing northerly swell event and a Gulf of California Gale Warning. Very strong high pressure of 1037 mb remains centered well to the NW of the discussion area. Associated ridging extends southeastward from this high center to across the Baja California peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja California and its offshore waters and at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas there are 5-10 ft in long-period NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW winds are over the southern Gulf of California along with seas to 4 ft while fresh SW winds are across the northern gulf. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, the fresh NW winds offshore Baja California will continue through tonight as strong high pressure W of Baja California weakens. A strong cold front is forecast to approach the waters W of Baja California Norte N of 29N late this afternoon, then quickly move across the remainder of the waters W of Baja California and the entire Gulf of California through Thu evening while it weakens. Strong to near gale-force W to NW winds will follow the front over the waters W of Baja California Norte this afternoon with the potential for brief gales early in the evening. This front will be preceded by strong to near gale- force SW to W winds in the northern Gulf of California today with seas building to 10 ft. Gale-force NW winds will then follow the front and affect the Gulf waters N of 30N for several hours on tonight into early Thu. Fresh to strong winds affecting the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will extend southward to Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Large NW swell in the wake of the front will subside Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are also in the Gulf of Panama extending past the Azuero Peninsula with seas to 5 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere along with seas of 3-4 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, with little overall change expected in the present synoptic pattern, winds offshore southern Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at fresh to strong speeds at night and into the mornings through Thu, with peak seas to around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds will then continue through Fri before increasing again to fresh to strong speeds on Sun. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the mornings also through Thu. Winds will remain light to gentle elsewhere during the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on a northerly swell event. Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are just north of the ITCZ extending to near 22N and W of 121W. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the forecast waters and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas within this area of trade winds are in the 8-12 ft range, with the highest of the seas present W of 133W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere across the area, with seas of 6-8 ft in NW to N swell, except 8-12 ft N of 26N and W of 117W. $$ Aguirre