000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281003
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Feb 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Fresh to near gale-force SW 
winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California on Wed 
morning ahead of a strong cold front forecast to move across the
Baja California Norte and the Gulf itself Wed evening. Gale NW
winds will follow the front and briefly affect the gulf waters N
of 30N through a period of six hours or early Thu morning. Seas
are forecast to build up to 10 ft during this period.

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: The leading edge of a new set of 
long-period NW swell will begin to propagate into the NE part of
the area starting this afternoon. This swell will be reinforced 
by another set of NW swell that will approach these same waters W
of Baja California beginning on Wed as a strong cold front moves
across the region. The swell will spread southward, with the 
leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching near 18N between 110W-136W
by Thu morning. Maximum seas generated by this swell event are 
expected to be in the range of 10-17 ft at a period of 10-14 
seconds, with the highest of the seas expected N of about 27N 
between Baja California Norte and 128W on Wed evening. The swell 
will begin to decay late on Thu. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Updated

A surface trough extends from 07N81W to 03N90W to 04N100W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06S90W to 04S110W to 02S130W. A second ITCZ 
extends from 05N130W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection 
is from 04N to 20N W of 125W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an 
upcoming northerly swell event and a Gulf of California Gale
Warning.

Very strong high pressure of 1038 mb is centered well to the 
NW of the discussion area. Associated ridging extends southeastward
from this high center to across the Baja California peninsula 
and offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressure across Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE 
winds across the Baja California and Jalisco offshore waters, and
the entrance of the Gulf of California where seas are 5-7 ft in 
NW swell. Moderate NW winds are in the southern half of the Gulf
of California with seas to 4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds 
are elsewhere along with seas to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, the fresh NW winds offshore Baja California 
will continue through Thu night, then diminish as strong high 
pressure W of Baja California weakens. A strong cold front is 
forecast to approach the waters W of Baja California Norte N of 
29N late Wed afternoon, then quickly move across the remainder of
the waters W of Baja California and the entire Gulf of 
California through Thu evening while it weakens. This front will 
be preceded by strong to near gale-force SW to W winds in the 
northern Gulf of California Wed with seas building to 10 ft.
Gale force winds will then follow the front and affect the
northern gulf briefly. Fresh to near gale force W to NW winds 
will also affect the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia Wed 
evening with fresh to strong winds extending southward to Cabo 
San Lucas through Thu. Decaying swell of 8 to 10 ft in the wake 
of the front will subside Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo
with seas to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are also in
the Gulf of Panama extending past the Azuero Peninsula with seas
to 4 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with seas of 3-4 
ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, with little overall change expected in the 
present synoptic pattern, winds offshore southern Nicaragua 
including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse at fresh to strong 
speeds at night and into the mornings through Thu, with peak 
seas to around 7 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the mornings through 
Thu. Winds will remain light to gentle elsewhere during the 
forecast period. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on the upcoming northerly swell event.

Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds are just north of 
the ITCZ extending to near 21N and W of about 116W, being the
strongest winds confined to the waters W of 124W. These winds 
are the result of the pressure gradient between strong high 
pressure N of the forecast waters and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas within this area of trade winds are in
the 8-11 ft range. A cold front is across the northern waters extending
from 30N127W to 29N130W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are 
behind the front N of 21N to 27N and W of 135W. Seas with these 
winds are in the 8-10 ft range.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trades will continue over 
the same area through Fri. A reinforcing set of long-period 
northerly swell is forecast to arrive into the north-central 
waters today and linger through the rest of the week while it 
slowly decays. A surface trough may form over the far western 
part of the tropical region near 140W by late Wed night. If this 
does occur, expect for trade winds in that part of the area to 
possibly increase to strong to near-gale force speeds, and for 
seas to build significantly.

$$
Ramos