534 
AXPZ20 KNHC 271605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A new set of long-period NW swell 
will begin to propagate into the northeast part of the area 
starting on Tue in the wake of a rather weak cold front that is 
expected to move across the waters N of of Punta Eugenia. The 
front will weaken during the day Tue and dissipate Tue night. 
Seas generated by this swell event are expected to be in the 
range of 11-14 ft. These seas will continue to spread southeast 
and south, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas reaching near 
16N between 110W-162W by early on Thu. Please read the latest 
High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia, southwestward
to 07N77W to 04N90W to 03N100W and to 03N110W.  The ITCZ extends
from 03N110W to 04N124W, where it pauses to the east of a trough.
It resumes at 03N120W to 04N140W. A second ITCZ extends from
03.4S94W to 02S100W to 02S109W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen from 05N to 10N between 138W-140W, also within 180 nm north
of the ITCZ between 127W-132W and within 60 nm of the second ITCZ 
between 94W-97W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an upcoming northerly swell event.

Very strong high pressure of 1041 mb is centered well to the 
northwest of the discussion area. Associated ridging extends 
southeastward from this high center to across the Baja 
California peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting moderate
to fresh N to NE winds across the Baja California and Jalisco 
offshore waters, and the entrance of the Gulf of California 
where seas are 5-8 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh NW winds 
are also along the southern half of the Gulf of California along 
with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere 
along with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail
in the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California through 
mid-week. Current NW swell across the waters off Baja California
will decay today. A rather weak cold front will reach the 
offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia this evening before 
dissipating shortly. This front will bring the swell mentioned in
the Special Features. A second and stronger cold front is 
forecast to arrive Wed night through Thu night along with fresh 
to strong winds for the Gulf of California and offshore Baja 
California. These winds will extend southward through the end of 
the week. A new set of large long-period NW swell will follow
in behind the front over the offshore Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas to 6 ft continue offshore
Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to 90W. 
Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas 
to 4 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with seas of 3-5 ft
due to a long-period SW swell.

For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong through Thu, with peak
seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Winds will remain light to 
gentle elsewhere through the forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on the upcoming northerly swell event.

Overnight ASCAT data depicts fresh to locally strong NE to E 
winds just north of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 115W. These winds 
are the result of the pressure gradient between strong high 
pressure N of the forecast waters and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas within this area of trades are in the 
8-11 ft range. A cold front extends from near 30N128W 
southwestward to 28N140W. Overnight ASCAT data shows fresh to 
strong N to NE winds behind the front. These seas are also out 
running the front to within 120 nm W of 134W. The overnight ASCAT
data suggests that winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trades will continue
over the same area through Fri. Northerly swell will begin to 
decay tonight. A reinforcing set of long-period northerly swell 
is forecast to arrive Tue and linger through the rest of 
the week while it slowly decays. 

$$
Aguirre