000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A new set of northerly swell with seas of 12 to 14 ft will push south of 30N beginning tonight/early on Tue and will continue extending southward through the middle of the week. This swell is associated with a cold front that will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Tue before dissipating Tue night. Seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to reach as south as 24N and E of 137W on Wed before starting to subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N81W to 06N87W. The ITCZ extends from 04N95W to 06N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 18N W of 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on an upcoming northerly swell event. Very strong surface high pressure of 1042 mb centered NW of the forecast waters near 38N155W extends a ridge SE across the Baja California peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the Baja California and Jalisco offshore waters, and the entrance of the Gulf of California where seas are in the 5 to 8 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh NW winds are also along the southern half of the Gulf of California along with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California through midweek. Current NW swell across the waters off Baja California will decay today. A weak cold front will reach the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia this evening before dissipating shortly. This front will bring the swell mentioned in the Special Features. A second and stronger cold front is forecast to arrive Wed night through Thu night along with fresh to strong winds for the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California. These winds will extend southward through the end of the week. A new set of large NW swell will accompany the front offshore Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas to 6 ft continue offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to 90W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 4 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong through Thu, with seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Winds will remain light to gentle elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the upcoming northerly swell event. Recent scatterometer data show a tongue of fresh to locally strong N E to E winds just N of the ITCZ to 21N and W of 115W. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the forecast waters and lower pressure associated with the covergence zone. Seas in this wide region fluctuate in the 8 to 10 ft range. A cold front extends from 30N130W SW to 29N140W. The front is followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds as confirmed by scatterometer data. Swell associated with the front is supporting 8 to 11 ft seas N of 27N and W of 132W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong trades will persist across the same area through Fri. Northerly swell will start decaying tonight until a reinforcing set arrives Tue through Thu. $$ Ramos