000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270944
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A new set of northerly swell with 
seas of 12 to 14 ft will push south of 30N beginning
tonight/early on Tue and will continue extending southward through
the middle of the week. This swell is associated with a cold 
front that will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Tue before
dissipating Tue night. Seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to 
reach as south as 24N and E of 137W on Wed before starting to 
subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 04N81W to 06N87W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N95W to 06N120W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 18N W of 110W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an upcoming northerly swell event.

Very strong surface high pressure of 1043 mb centered NW of the
forecast waters near 39N156W extends a ridge SE across the Baja
California peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure across western Mexico is supporting
moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the Baja California and
Jalisco offshore waters, and the entrance of the Gulf of California
where seas are in the 5 to 8 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh 
NW winds are also along the southern half of the Gulf of 
California along with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable
winds are elsewhere with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail
in the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California through 
midweek. Current NW swell across the waters off Baja California 
will decay on Mon. A weak cold front will reach the offshore
waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon night before dissipating shortly.
This front will bring the swell mentioned in the Special
Features. A second and stronger cold front is forecast to arrive
Wed night through Thu night along with fresh to strong winds for
the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California. These winds
will extend southward through the end of the week. A new set of 
large NW swell will accompany the front offshore Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas to 6 ft continue offshore
Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to 89W. 
Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with seas
to 4 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5
ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong through Thu, with seas to
around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Panama through Thu. Winds will remain light to gentle  
elsewhere through the forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on the upcoming northerly swell event.

Moderate to fresh winds are over the open waters. Weak surface 
ridging prevails elsewhere north of the ITCZ. The resultant 
pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades 
north of the ITCZ to 24N and west of 110W. Winds are moderate or
weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8 ft or greater in northerly swell 
covers the waters north of 02N and west of 115W. Seas are 5 to 7 
ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft south of the Equator, and north of
the Equator east of 115W.

For the forecast, a cold front is entering the waters south of 
30N tonight while weakening. The moderate to fresh trades will 
persist across the same area through the early part of the week.
An expanding area of fresh to strong trades will occur Mon night
through mid-week as the pressure gradient tightens. The northerly
swell will start decaying tonight until a reinforcing set 
arrives Tue through mid-week.

$$
Ramos