000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270354
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Feb 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A new set of northerly swell with 
seas of 12 to 14 ft will push south of 30N beginning on Mon 
night/Tue through at least Thu. This swell is associated with a 
cold front starting to move over the far NW open waters tonight.
Seas in excess of 12 ft are expected to reach as south as 24N 
and E of 137W on Wed before starting to subside. 
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N83W. The ITCZ extends
from 05N83W to 04N99W then resumes near 05N110W to 05N130W to
03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N 
between 108W and 123W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on an upcoming northerly swell event.

Very strong surface high pressure of 1043 mb centered NW of the
forecast waters near 39N156W extends a ridge SE across the Baja
California peninsula and offshore waters. The gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure across western Mexico is supporting
moderate to fresh N to NE winds across the Baja California and
Jalisco offshore waters, and the entrance of the Gulf of California
where seas are in the 5 to 8 ft in NW swell. Moderate to fresh 
NW winds are also along the southern half of the Gulf of 
California along with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable
winds are elsewhere with seas to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail
in the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California through 
midweek. Current NW swell across the waters off Baja California 
will decay on Mon. A weak cold front will reach the offshore
waters N of Punta Eugenia Mon night before dissipating shortly.
This front will bring the swell mentioned in the Special
Features. A second and stronger cold front is forecast to arrive
Wed night through Thu night along with fresh to strong winds for
the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California. These winds
will extend southward through the end of the week. A new set of 
large NW swell will accompany the front offshore Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted offshore Nicaragua 
including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Seas to 8 ft prevail with the strongest winds. 
Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 4 to 6
ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of 3 
to 5 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of
Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong through the week, with
seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse 
in the Gulf of Panama through the week. Winds will be moderate or
weaker with slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the 
forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for more details 
on the upcoming northerly swell event.

A weakening cold front is analyzed from 27N114W to 20N139W. 
Moderate to fresh winds are following the front over the open 
waters. A surface trough is analyzed south of the front from 
19N122W to 14N121W. Weak surface ridging prevails elsewhere 
north of the ITCZ. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting 
fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough between 116W 
and 128W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of about 
05N and west of 110W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. 
Seas of 8 ft or greater in northerly swell covers the waters 
north of 02N and west of 115W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, 
except 4 to 6 ft south of the Equator, and north of the Equator 
east of 115W.

For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through 
this evening, while another cold front drops south of 30N tonight
while weakening. The moderate to fresh trades will persist 
across the same area through the early part of the week as the 
trough drifts west-southwest. An expanding area of fresh to 
strong trades will occur Mon night through mid-week as the 
pressure gradient tightens. The northerly swell will start decaying
tonight until a reinforcing set arrives Tue through mid-week.

$$
Ramos