000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Pacific Swell Event: A new set of northerly swell with seas of 12 to 14 ft will push south of 30N beginning on Mon night/Tue through at least Thu. This swell is related to a cold front that will enter our area tonight. 12+ ft seas are expected to reach as low as 27N and E of 137W on Tue night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from the Pacific coast of Colombia near 08N78W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 03N140W. A second ITCZ extends from south of the Galapagos Islands from 03S92W to 01S104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 109W and 123W and along the secondary ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the upcoming northerly swell event. A weakening cold front extends from 29N112W to 20N139W. Moderate to fresh W-NW winds behind the front are spreading across the waters W of the Baja California Peninsula, and ahead of the front in the Gulf of California where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, and 5 to 8 ft offshore Baja California Sur. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, under a weak ridge of high pressure ahead of the front. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in mainly NW swell across the remainder of the waters, except mixed with southerly swell offshore Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, the front will continue moving southeast today while dissipating. Moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail in the northern Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Norte through midweek. NW swell across the waters off Baja California will continue through tonight, supporting rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters. The swell will decay on Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front setting up fresh to strong winds from near Cabo Corrientes, northwestward to offshore Baja California, and in the southern Gulf of California for the early part of the week. The next cold front will arrive Wed night through Thu night bringing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California, spreading southward through the end of the week. A new set of large NW swell will accompany the front offshore Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas to 8 ft prevail with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama with 4 to 6 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with seas of 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, winds offshore Nicaragua including the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong through the week, with seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the week. Winds will be moderate or weaker with slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the upcoming northerly swell event. A weakening cold front is analyzed from 27N114W to 20N139W. Moderate to fresh winds are following the front over the open waters. A surface trough is analyzed south of the front from 19N122W to 14N121W. Weak surface ridging prevails elsewhere north of the ITCZ. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong winds on either side of the trough between 116W and 128W, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere north of about 05N and west of 110W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8 ft or greater in northerly swell covers the waters north of 02N and west of 115W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft south of the Equator, and north of the Equator east of 115W. For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through this evening, while another cold front drops south of 30N tonight while weakening. The moderate to fresh trades will persist across the same area through the early part of the week as the trough drifts west-southwest. An expanding area of fresh to strong trades will occur Mon night through mid-week as the pressure gradient tightens. The northerly swell will start decaying tonight until a reinforcing set arrives Tue through mid-week. $$ ERA